As usual before the market opens in the morning, I drink some water first, and at the same time keep my hand on that little urge to “charge ahead when I see the data.” Lately, there’s been more talk from people who bundle together stories about stablecoin supply, ETF subscriptions, and off-exchange funds. In plain terms, strong correlation doesn’t mean causation—sometimes it’s just that everyone’s emotions get lit up at the same time.

These days, I’d rather treat it as “background noise”: the money might be on the way, or it might just be sitting there in a different shell. Especially now, with the whole “stacking” of returns from re-staking and shared security getting criticized as “matryoshka dolls”—it looks exciting, but if you really go chasing after it, you can easily forget how the risks are wrapped up layer by layer.

Anyway, my own rules are still the same old ones: wait for confirmation, take it in batches, and admit when you’re wrong. I don’t need data to boost my confidence. Once I’m done drinking, don’t rush to take apart the matryoshka either—first, figure out clearly what’s actually inside.