5.23 Market Analysis—Brief Update (Including Operation Suggestions)

Trend Direction: Bearish

BTC:

At the 12H level, a large bearish candle broke below the consolidation area and the lower edge of the falling flag pattern, indicating continued bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the MA90 and MA120 will cross within the next two days, resonating with the support zone 73024-74157, forming a strong support. Narrowing the range gives 73024-73557. Since the market is entering the weekend and the pattern after the decline consolidation has ended, the continuation of the downtrend begins. Therefore, here is a direct trading bias script forecast—BTC drops to 73024-73557 (near the extreme pin at 72), then rebounds. The rebound target is roughly around 776, then a new downtrend begins.

ETH:

Similar to BTC, at the 12H level, a torrential rain pattern appears, also indicating the continuation of the downtrend. So, here is a simple trading bias script forecast—ETH drops to around 1990 (near the extreme pin at 1951), then rebounds. The rebound target is between 2138-2173, followed by a new downtrend.

On Friday, the Nasdaq did not form a daily-level bearish candle as expected, but a clear downtrend appeared in the late trading session. Although the weekly chart did not close with an ideal candle as expected, a significant weekly decline next week is highly probable. Meanwhile, even though the three major US stock indices closed positively yesterday, it did not prevent BTC and ETH from breaking downward. Therefore, we remain bearish over the weekend.

Although the outlook remains bearish, BTC and ETH have already fallen nearly 10% and 20%, respectively, from their highs. Considering the supply zones and moving average support strength below, reaching the target areas mentioned above still has a considerable rebound potential and demand. Whether for trend positions or short-term trades, it is necessary to set appropriate take-profit levels for shorts and to consider long positions near the target zones.

Trading Recommendations

1. Trend Positions

(1) For short positions: set take-profit at 1996;

(2) For long positions: buy at 1990 with a small position (recommend 2x leverage), no stop-loss, take-profit initially at 2170, depending on market conditions, consider manual closing;

(3) For short positions: near the target zone of 2138-2173, open short positions in tranches, specific take-profit levels will be announced later.

2. Short-term Positions

(1) For short positions: set take-profit at 2006;

(2) For long positions:

• Main position—3x leverage, buy at 1990, no stop-loss, take-profit temporarily at 2130, depending on market conditions, consider manual closing;

• Add-on position—2x leverage, buy at 1951, stop-loss at 1886, take-profit at 2130. Short-term longs will be adjusted and protected based on actual market conditions, with real-time updates.

Major support and resistance zones will not be included in today’s article; next week, updates will be based on actual trading data.