I saw that the Brazilian Central Bank has just updated its projections and the inflation situation in Brazil is becoming more complicated. According to last week's data, market expectations for this year's IPCA have risen to 4.89%, up from 4.86% the previous week. This is the eighth consecutive time they have raised their estimates, practically every week pushing the numbers higher.

The interesting thing is that behind these adjustments is geopolitical uncertainty. The conflict in the Middle East is creating pressure on global prices, and Brazil is not immune to these effects. Now, the projections for Brazilian inflation have exceeded the central bank's target range, which was set at 3% with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points (so between 1.5% and 4.5%).

Practically, they are already outside the upper limit. This is not a particularly positive sign for Brazilian monetary policy in the coming months. We will see if the central bank will need to take more aggressive measures to control Brazilian inflation.