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Historically, every time the Federal Reserve changes its chair, Bitcoin follows with a big bear market and significant declines.
Will this time follow the same script as before?
1) Yellen's appointment (February 3, 2014)
- Predecessor: Bernanke → New appointment: Yellen
- Bitcoin position: peaked in December 2013 at around $1,200
- After taking office: continuous decline + sharp drop
- Lowest point: January 2015 at around $150
- Largest decline: about -85%
Trend: high-level oscillation → breakdown → long-term decline, sideways trading for over half a year.
2) Powell's first term (February 5, 2018)
- Predecessor: Yellen → New appointment: Powell
- Bitcoin position: peaked in December 2017 at around $19,700
- After taking office: initially a slight rally, then turned bearish
- Lowest point: December 2018 at around $3,200
- Largest decline: about -84%
Trend: double top at high levels → breakdown → waterfall decline → decline throughout the year.
3) Powell's reappointment (May 2022)
- Date: Confirmed by the Senate in May 2022 for a second term
- Bitcoin position: peaked in November 2021 at around $69,000
- Afterwards: rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, continuous decline
- Lowest point: November 2022 at around $15,500
- Largest decline: about -77%
Trend: retreat from high levels → multiple failed rebounds → accelerated bottoming out.
4) Summary of patterns (very critical)
- The timing of chair changes almost always occurs 2–3 months after Bitcoin's bull market peak
- Within 6–12 months after a new chair takes office, a major bear market occurs, with declines generally between 70%–85%
- Logic: policy uncertainty + tightening expectations + liquidity tightening, making risk assets (especially cryptocurrencies) the most vulnerable.
5) This time: May 15, 2026, Powell → Waller
- Current Bitcoin: oscillating at high levels (between 76k and 80k)
- High probability of history repeating: gradually weakening after mid-May, bearish in the second half of the year
- Bitcoin's 720 cycle is within a very reasonable correction range historically.