Short-term Trading Strategy — How to "Buy Low and Sell High" in Volatile Markets

Don't get excited when good news appears; here is my BTC trading plan for today

Today, Bitcoin surged above $78k on news of the US-Iran agreement draft, and many started shouting "bull run." But as a short-term trader, I remain calm. Below, I share my trading thoughts for today (for reference only, not investment advice).

Step 1: Determine the Current Market Condition
From volatility and price structure, the market is still in a consolidation phase, not a trend. The daily chart has not broken above the previous high ($80,500) nor below the previous low ($72,500). In a sideways market, the worst thing is to chase rallies or sell in panic. My simple strategy: buy near the lower boundary of the range, short near the upper boundary, and wait for a breakout to observe.

Step 2: Define the Consolidation Range
Based on technical analysis and on-chain data, I believe today’s core range is $76,800 – $78,800.

· Support below: $76,800 (4-hour EMA55), $76,200 (previous low)
· Resistance above: $78,500 (today’s high), $79,000 (psychological round number)

Step 3: Specific Trading Plan

· Long plan: If the price retraces to the $77,000 – $77,200 range and shows 15-minute signals of a reversal (such as long lower shadows, RSI divergence), I will open a small long position, with a stop loss at $76,600, and take profit at $78,000 and $78,500.
· Short plan: If the price rebounds to $78,300 – $78,500 but volume diminishes, and it cannot break through $78,500, I will consider shorting, with a stop loss at $78,900, and take profit at $77,500 and $77,000.
· Breakout response: If volume increases and the price breaks above $78,800 with a solid 15-minute candle, I will abandon shorts and switch to waiting or going long on a pullback. If volume drops and the price falls below $76,600, I will also avoid bottom fishing.

Step 4: Position Size and Mindset
In a sideways market, I usually only use one-third of my usual position size because of lower certainty. I will also participate in today’s Polymarket prediction event but won’t bet on extreme directions — I choose the $77,000 – $78,000 range, as it covers the most probable consolidation zone. Lastly, remember: never chase longs after good news, and don’t panic sell on a single bearish candle. The market rewards patience and punishes impulsiveness.

#Polymarket每日热点