On-chain Data — Are the Whales Buying or Selling Near 77k?

Exchange inflows surge sharply, short-term selling pressure cannot be ignored

Price movements can be deceiving, but on-chain data is relatively honest. Let’s look at what changes occurred in Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators before and after today’s news announcement. This data will help us determine: above $77k, are the whales truly buying or just pretending to buy?

Exchange net flow: In the past 24 hours, the net inflow of Bitcoin into centralized exchanges was +12,500 coins, significantly up from +2,100 coins the previous day. Notably, within two hours after the news was announced, over 8,000 BTC were transferred into exchanges. Usually, token inflows into exchanges indicate potential selling intent. Although not all are sold, at least some holders are taking profits on the good news. If large inflows continue in the next 24 hours, short-term correction pressure will increase noticeably.

Whale address behavior: Addresses holding 1,000 – 10,000 BTC net reduced about 15,000 coins over the past week, but after today’s news, three whale addresses combined increased holdings by 4,200 coins. In other words, there is disagreement among whales: some choose to sell, others see it as a buying opportunity. This aligns with the price volatility — fierce battle between bulls and bears.

Miner movements: Miner wallet balances decreased by about 2,300 BTC in the past 48 hours, maintaining a normal reduction pace, with no signs of panic or accelerated selling. Hash rate remains around 680 EH/s, with no obvious fluctuations, indicating miners are not pessimistic about the current price level.

Stablecoin supply: The total USDT in exchanges increased by 3.2% over the past week, reaching $42 billion, representing potential buying power. However, so far today, the inflow speed of stablecoins into trading pairs has not significantly accelerated, indicating off-exchange funds are still on the sidelines, not rushing in due to a single piece of news.

Based on the on-chain data, I judge: the current price level faces some selling pressure (exchange inflows increased), but whales are also absorbing. It’s unlikely to see a one-sided surge or crash in the short term. Today, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within the $76,500 – $78,500 range, with the closing price possibly near the middle. On Polymarket, I would choose the $77,000 – $78,000 range.

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