Just came across this fascinating old theory about market cycles from Samuel Benner back in 1875. The guy was basically trying to crack the code on when to make money in financial markets, and honestly, it's pretty interesting how he broke things down.

So Benner identified three distinct periods when to make money and when to stay cautious. The first type he called Panic Years – these show up roughly every 18 to 20 years and are basically when everything hits the fan. Financial crises, market collapses, that kind of chaos. He marked years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019 as panic periods, with 2035 and 2053 predicted further out. The advice here is simple: don't panic sell during these times, stay defensive.

Then there are the Boom Years – the periods when to make money by selling. These are the golden windows when prices are surging and markets are recovering strong. Benner listed a bunch of them: 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2007, 2016, 2020, and he predicted 2026, 2034, 2043, 2054 coming up. If you're holding assets, this is supposedly when you lock in profits.

The third piece is the Recession Years – Hard Times as he called them. Prices are depressed, the economy is struggling, and this is when you'd want to accumulate. Buy stocks, buy land, buy commodities cheap. He identified years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1978, 1985, 2005, 2012, 2023, and predicted 2032, 2040, 2050 ahead. The play here is obvious: buy low, hold through the boom, then sell high.

The whole strategy is pretty elegant if you think about it. Buy during recessions when everything's cheap, hold through the recovery, then sell when boom periods hit and prices are elevated. Avoid getting shaken out during panic years. It's like the ultimate long-term market timing framework.

Now, here's the thing – Benner himself was clear this isn't some ironclad law. Markets get shaped by tons of variables: geopolitics, technological shifts, wars, policy changes, all that stuff. But as a historical pattern and a way to think about long-term cycles? It's a pretty compelling lens for understanding when to make money and when to sit tight. Definitely worth keeping in mind when you're thinking about your investment timeline.