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Caixin Survey | Most macroeconomic indicators will marginally improve in April, and exports are expected to remain strong
[Caixin] The disturbance to China's economy from the late Spring Festival holiday has basically subsided. Driven by factors such as resilient exports and some indicators having a relatively low baseline in the same period of 2025, industrial production and consumption in April may show slight improvements.
Recently, Caixin's survey of 11 domestic and foreign institutions shows that in terms of production, most economists expect the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in April to accelerate or stay flat compared to March, with an average forecast of 5.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from March, with a forecast range of 5.2% to 6.3%.
The National Bureau of Statistics' manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April decreased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 50.3, but the sub-index for production increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 51.5%.
CICC's macro research report states that high-frequency data on the operating rate of major industries show mixed year-on-year growth. Some chemical industries have seen a decline in operating rates due to energy supply issues, but overall, industrial production remains resilient and supported by exports. Considering the lower baseline in the same period of 2025, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in April may slightly rise to 5.8%.