Historically, every time the Federal Reserve changes its chair, Bitcoin afterward turns into a big bear market and sees a major drop.

1) Yellen takes office (2014.2.3)

- Predecessor: Bernanke → New: Yellen
- Bitcoin position: peaked in Dec 2013 at ~$1,200
- After taking office: a steady grind lower + a crash
- Lowest point: Jan 2015 at ~$150
- Largest drop: about -85%
Trend: high-level consolidation → breakdown → long-term drift lower, moving sideways for more than half a year.

2) Powell’s first time taking office (2018.2.5)

- Predecessor: Yellen → New: Powell
- Bitcoin position: peaked in Dec 2017 at ~$19,700
- After taking office: first a small push higher, then turned bearish
- Lowest point: Dec 2018 at ~$3,200
- Largest drop: about -84%
Trend: high-level double top → breakdown → waterfall decline → a bearish market for the whole year.

3) Powell reappointed (2022.5)

- Time: Senate confirmed the reappointment in May 2022
- Bitcoin position: peaked in Nov 2021 at ~$69,000
- After that: rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, falling all the way
- Lowest point: Nov 2022 at ~$15,500
- Largest drop: about -77%
Trend: pullback from high levels → multiple failed rebound attempts → accelerating to the bottom.

4) Rule summary (very critical)

- The timing of the chair change is almost always 2–3 months after the peak of Bitcoin’s bull market
- After a new chair takes office, within 6–12 months a big bear market follows, with declines generally in the range of 70%–85%
- Logic: policy uncertainty + tightening expectations + liquidity tightening, meaning risk assets (especially crypto) are the most hurt.

5) This time: May 15, 2026 Powell → Waller

- Bitcoin now: consolidating at high levels (range of 76,000–80,000)
- The historical repeat probability is very high: after mid-May it gradually weakens, and the second half of the year is more bearish
- Bitcoin 720, in historical cycles, is in a very reasonable pullback range.
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