$77,400 Bitcoin, do you dare to buy the dip?

Fallen from 126,000 to 77k, a 39% drop, turning $100k into $60k overnight. ETF net outflows exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive weeks, the Fed hinted at possible rate hikes, and 90% of the group started shouting "Bear market is here." But SpaceX disclosed holding 18.7k BTC, and BlackRock is quietly accumulating.

First look at the surface: the drop is severe, but it hasn't collapsed.

In the past week, it fell another 4%, slapped back from over 80k to 77k, with a slight 0.2% increase in 24 hours, like dead water. High-level oscillation, small entities + upper shadow lines, selling pressure not over. MACD dead cross, RSI neutral, don’t rush to buy, wait for signals.

First thing: ETFs are running, but institutions haven't left.

On May 13, a single-day outflow of $635 million, weekly outflows exceeding $1 billion.

But if you look carefully—cumulative net inflow still exceeds $57 billion, holding over 720k BTC. BlackRock’s IBIT indeed has outflows, but nowhere near liquidation.

SpaceX just disclosed holding 18.7k BTC, worth over $1.29 billion. Corporate treasuries are still buying, and sovereign reserves are still deploying.

Second thing: macro is the biggest bear, but also the biggest powder keg.

The Fed has held steady three times in a row, interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, four officials voting for rate hikes—breaking a 30-year record. Inflation at 3.8%, rate cut expectations delayed until 2027.

If inflation truly recedes, even just signaling a rate cut once, BTC could rebound from 77k to 100k, no need for many reasons.

Third thing: fundamentals tell you supply and demand are already out of balance.

Post-halving, only 450 BTC are produced daily. Even if ETF inflows slow, historical peak daily absorption reached several thousand—10 times the new supply. Exchange balances are at multi-year lows, long-term holders are still accumulating.

On one side:

- Halving + ETF dual scarcity, supply-demand imbalance 10:1

- Corporate treasuries and sovereign reserves keep buying

- Long-term HODLers remain unmoved, chips sedimenting

- 77k has retraced 39% from the all-time high, approaching bear market bottom zone

On the other side:

- ETF continuous outflows, short-term selling pressure obvious

- The Fed may hike again, high interest rates suppress risk assets

- Weekly chart broke down, MACD dead cross

- You’re afraid to buy, your friends say “it might drop to 60k”

Key level: 77k, just 3,000 away from the bottom at 74,000.

Resistance above: 78,500 → 80k (psychological threshold) → 82,000

Support below: 76,000 → 75,000 → 74,000-74,800 (double bottom neckline, last line of defense)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 76,000-75,000 to enter gradually, stop-loss below 74,000, first target 78,500-80,000. If it rebounds to 79,000-80,000 with no volume, lightly short for a quick trade, stop-loss at 81,000, target 75,000.

Swing traders:

Wait until daily volume stabilizes above 80,000 before entering, target 85,000-90,000. If it breaks below 74,000, give up, wait for the golden pit at 60k-70k.

Long-term believers:

Below 77k, buy in batches with eyes closed. Halving + ETF + institutionalization, this is Bitcoin’s third paradigm shift. Never go all-in at any time, keep cash for black swans.

BTC now is like 17k in 2022—

99% of people thought “it will drop to 10k,” but two years later, it rose to 120k.

You don’t dare to buy Bitcoin at 77,000. When it returns to 100k, you’ll ask: Why didn’t I believe back then? #TradFi交易分享挑战 #灰度购入超51万HYPE并质押 $BTC $ETH