I’ve been thinking about a question lately: why do some people easily accumulate wealth, while others, no matter how hard they try, remain stuck in the same place? The answer is actually simple — it’s not about effort, but whether you’ve stepped into the right timing.

Look at those who have made it big, like coal tycoons or real estate investors. They’re not necessarily smarter or more hardworking than ordinary workers. Their biggest advantage is that they are standing in the right cycle. This is the true essence of wealth creation relying on the Kondratiev wave cycle.

I’ve noticed that many people’s understanding of economic cycles still stays at a very superficial level. In fact, economic movements are much more regular than we imagine. Simply put, the fundamental reason for cycles is the contradiction between one-time investment expenditures and the periodic nature of income. This contradiction leads to mismatches between supply and demand.

Taking the easiest example to understand: we can decide overnight whether to eat meat, but pig farming cycles take half a year. We can quickly decide to expand photovoltaic investments, but building a solar plant takes two years. It’s precisely this lag in supply that causes cyclical fluctuations.

Economists categorize these cycles into several types. Short cycles last about 3 to 5 years, driven mainly by inventory. Medium cycles last around 8 to 10 years, mainly due to equipment upgrades and fixed asset investments. There’s also a 20-year real estate cycle, because people’s housing demand follows this rhythm. But most importantly, there’s the long cycle of about 50 years — the Kondratiev wave.

The Kondratiev cycle is generally divided into four phases: recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression. Each phase brings different investment opportunities. There’s a researcher named Zhou Jintao who has studied this theory in depth. His view is that from 2016 to 2026 is the depression phase of the last Kondratiev wave, and starting from 2026, a new wave of recovery will begin.

Looking back now, this judgment seems quite reasonable. A few years ago, there was indeed a sense of depression, but recent market changes seem to be confirming this turning point. According to the logic of the Kondratiev cycle, each recovery phase creates huge wealth opportunities — from the steam engine to railroads, from electricity to the internet, and now to artificial intelligence and new energy.

The key is to understand which cycle you are in. Many people’s problem isn’t a lack of effort, but a wrong direction. As long as you understand the regularity of the Kondratiev cycle, position yourself at the bottom, and profit at the top, you will naturally go with the trend. This isn’t some mystical secret — it’s a respect for economic laws. If you’re interested, you can study related theories yourself; there are also many relevant assets on Gate that you can follow.