I've noticed something interesting about currency movements lately. While U.S. economic data remains solid, there is a dollar depreciation that continues to surprise many analysts.

According to Société Générale, the situation is quite paradoxical: despite economic growth and inflation prospects, President Trump continues to push for lower rates and a weaker dollar. This stance has actually limited the performance of the U.S. currency, regardless of positive numbers coming out of the USA.

Here's the interesting point. Normally, strong economic data would support the dollar, but this time the dollar depreciation seems driven more by political expectations than fundamentals. It's as if the market is already pricing in this direction.

If the conflict with Iran does not escalate further, the scenarios become even more favorable for this weakening dynamic. In that case, we could comfortably see the euro rise toward 1.20 in the coming weeks.

Personally, I find it interesting how dollar depreciation has become almost a declared goal rather than an accidental consequence. This changes the game quite a bit for those operating in the currency markets.