Feature Article | April Investment Growth Rate Turns Negative Again: How to Understand and Respond?

【Caixin.com】 As China’s economic transformation is gradually carried forward, fixed asset investment—previously contributing a relatively high share to economic growth—has shown a slowdown in its pace of growth in recent years. In the opening year of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” a number of major projects have been successively started. Whether they can help investment halt its decline and stabilize has attracted considerable attention in the market.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2026, total fixed asset investment nationwide grew 1.7% year-on-year cumulatively, reversing the rare decline seen in the previous year. However, this momentum was not sustained in April; investment growth turned negative again, with cumulative year-on-year contraction of 1.6% from January to April.

This performance is far below market expectations. In a recent survey by Caixin Media of domestic and overseas institutions, 11 organizations that provided forecasts for investment growth all showed an average of 1.7%, with a forecast range of 1.4% to 2.4%. Multiple market institutions, including Guosheng Securities and Minsheng Bank, said that, against the backdrop of accelerated year-on-year growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in April, the decline in investment growth suggests that actual performance may be even weaker.