Polymarket is targeted again: South Korea's anti-gambling law review initiated, June elections become a trigger point

According to Bloomberg, the Korea Communications Commission (KCSC) has officially begun reviewing the prediction market platform Polymarket to determine whether it offers illegal gambling content and violates Korean anti-gambling laws. Korea's local elections are scheduled for June, and multiple betting markets related to election results are already active on Polymarket, making the timing particularly sensitive.
(Background: Polymarket Taiwan election markets are under scrutiny! Rumors of multiple people being searched and called in for questioning)
(Additional background: Polymarket submitted a "parlay contract" self-certification to the CFTC! SEC Chair seeks public comments on prediction markets ETF)

Key Summary

• Korea's KCSC is officially reviewing whether Polymarket violates anti-gambling laws, potentially leading to platform blocking
• Local elections in Korea are imminent in June, with multiple election betting markets already active on Polymarket
• France, Germany, Italy, and six other countries have classified Polymarket as illegal gambling and have fully blocked access

Korea's current laws impose strict restrictions on gambling activities, allowing only state-approved projects such as horse racing and sports betting, with online gambling completely prohibited. A KCSC official confirmed to the media on 5/21 that they have recently received reports involving Polymarket and have initiated formal review procedures. Authorities will examine Polymarket’s Korean language interface support and local availability to determine whether the platform falls under domestic enforcement jurisdiction. If found illegal, it may be directly blocked.

Polymarket argues that the odds on the platform are determined by market participants through buying and selling contracts, not set by the platform itself, and therefore should not be regulated as gambling. However, this gray area is precisely what many regulators do not accept: most law enforcement agencies care less about the mechanism design and more about whether users are betting real money on uncertain outcomes.

32 Korean political markets are running, with the Democratic Party’s win probability pushed to 97%

Within Polymarket’s political categories, Korea alone has 32 active markets. In the upcoming June 3 local elections, the ruling Democratic Party’s win/loss market shows a 97.3% implied probability, reflecting President Lee Jae-myung’s approximately 67% approval rating and ongoing lead in polls. The Seoul mayoral race is similarly one-sided, with Democratic candidate Jung Eui-hyun leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by 87.5% to 12.5%. Additionally, several derivative markets are running simultaneously, including legislative by-elections and presidential election margins.

Prediction market data sourced from Polymarket

Prediction market data sourced from Polymarket

Eight countries have already banned, Korea may become the ninth

France, Germany, Italy, India, Brazil, Ukraine, Australia, and Argentina have classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling site and fully blocked access. Korea is one of the largest markets for cryptocurrency trading in Asia and a key user base for Polymarket in the Asia-Pacific region. If it follows the same path, the impact could be even greater.

With the local elections approaching in June, the 32 Korean political markets are updating odds daily, making it difficult for regulators to continue turning a blind eye. Several users in Taiwan have already been searched and questioned by police for betting on election markets on Polymarket. Authorities track on-chain transaction flows and cross-reference exchange KYC to identify individuals; VPN circumvention is ineffective. If Korea initiates similar enforcement actions, the scale and intensity could only increase.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the possible outcomes of the KCSC review of Polymarket?

If KCSC determines that Polymarket provides illegal gambling content, it could directly block access to the platform in Korea, making it the ninth country after France, Germany, Italy, and others to ban Polymarket.

Why does Polymarket believe it is not considered gambling?

Polymarket claims that odds are determined by market participants through buying and selling contracts, not set by the platform, and thus it does not fall under the regulation of "house-banked gambling." However, most regulatory authorities worldwide do not accept this argument.