#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍#Polymarket每日热点

First, share my view: Regarding the market rebound in today's cryptocurrency market, I believe it is a sign that the good news has been fully priced in and a correction is about to begin. I am betting on Bitcoin at a price range of 76,000-78,000 on May 22, for the following reasons:

1. Technical analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin shows a "double top" pattern, with the price touching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands for support, but the MACD histogram is shrinking, indicating an imminent death cross. During this correction, both RSI and KDJ have not shown oversold conditions, suggesting there is still downward momentum.

On the daily chart, after rebounding to the MA10, the price faces resistance and falls back. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward. If today’s daily candle cannot close positively, a new wave of decline is likely to begin, with a target around 74,500.

On the weekly chart, after touching the 30-week moving average, the price is rejected and falls back. The MACD histogram is also shrinking, possibly signaling the start of a new downward wave, forming a fifth wave of decline on the weekly chart. Whether this week’s weekly candle can hold above the middle Bollinger Band at 75,000 is crucial.

Overall, technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, but considering today is Friday and there are no major external news changes, the market is unlikely to experience large fluctuations. It’s also unlikely to break below the previous support at 76,600, so I believe the price will stay within 76,000-78,000.

2. News sentiment

From the news perspective, this rebound was triggered by the news that "the final draft of the US-Iran agreement has been reached through Pakistan mediation," but the rebound strength is limited. During the same period, gold and crude oil were not significantly affected; crude oil even rose. The authenticity of this news may be questionable. Although the White House has stated there has been "progress" in negotiations, Iran remains firm, and their demands regarding "uranium enrichment" are at odds. If news of a failed negotiation emerges later, the market will continue to decline. Therefore, the current short-term positive sentiment can be seen as "the good news has been fully priced in."

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's calls for rate hikes this year are becoming louder, which also adds negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

In summary, I am betting on 76,000-78,000. Do you agree, everyone? If not, come and debate! $MU $USIDX