In the past few days, I've seen people link stablecoin supply, ETF inflows, and market movements together.

Honestly, the correlation looks quite good, but it doesn't necessarily mean the causal chain is connected.
An increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is temporarily parking their money in a "liquid" place, and ETF inflows could be happening gradually, not necessarily rushing into small-cap stocks immediately.
Plus, recently some regions have been tightening or loosening taxes and compliance regulations, causing expectations for deposits and withdrawals to fluctuate.
People prefer to wait and see, which makes data more prone to misinterpretation.

My perfectionist tendencies have kicked in again—I want to act only when liquidity and position distribution look right.
But often, waiting means missing out on some opportunities...
Anyway, lately I prefer to take an extra step: try small transfers first before large ones and set up a whitelist.
It's slower, but at least I sleep better.