#Polymarket每日热点 On May 22nd, an agreement draft was reached between the US and Iran, easing geopolitical risks. Bitcoin briefly recovered to $78k before falling back to around $77.7k to fluctuate. From the market perspective, this is a typical "pulse rebound"—positive news caused a sudden surge in price, but insufficient buying volume afterward prevented a trend breakout.

The rebound is unlikely to last and is more likely to be a correction after the good news is fully priced in.

There are three reasons:

1. A single engine cannot sustain the trend. The positive news from the agreement has been quickly priced in, but core headwinds such as the Fed's hawkish stance (April CPI exceeding expectations, extended freeze period), four consecutive days of ETF net outflows (up to $635 million in a single day), and weak institutional buying in the US (Coinbase premium turning negative) have not changed. After the news hype, market liquidity remains under pressure.
2. Technical resistance from multiple levels. The $78,200–$78,500 zone converges with the 4-hour EMA200, the upper Bollinger Band, and the SAR indicator. The price has failed to break above this zone for five consecutive days. If it cannot break through $79,000, it remains in a technical correction pattern.
3. Sentiment is fragile. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 28 (fear), approaching extreme fear levels. Contract funding rates are only 0.01%, with open interest around $55.4 billion. Leveraged traders are collectively retreating, indicating a lack of confidence in further upward movement.

In summary, today's market is more likely to weaken gradually after fluctuating around $77k, with support at $76,200. If this level is broken, it may test the $74,500–$75,600 zone. The rebound is a selling point, not a buying opportunity.