U.S. and Iran suddenly "shake hands"? BTC quickly surged back to $78k in one second, and shorts went straight to insomnia last night!

In the early hours of May 22, the biggest news in the crypto world wasn't the ETF, nor whale transfers, but—news of a final draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran actually leaked out.
The market's first reaction was very genuine:
Gold first hesitated;
The dollar first softened;
BTC immediately bounced up.
Bitcoin briefly regained the $78k level, then fell back to hover around $77,000. Many people started asking:
"Is this a sign of a new wave of takeoff, or just a good news dump before a run?"
Actually, the market right now is very much like the day before an exam:
Everyone knows something's going to happen,
But no one knows how difficult the questions will be.
This time, Middle East risk easing is indeed good news for risk assets. Because global funds fear war the most, once safe-haven sentiment cools down, funds will naturally flow back into high-volatility assets.
And BTC just happens to be one of the most emotional assets worldwide.
But here’s the question:
Why, despite such good news, didn’t BTC surge directly?
Because the market has already started to experience "news fatigue."
Over the past few years, BTC has gone through too much:
ETFs;
Expectations of rate cuts;
War risks;
Regulatory storms.
Now, institutional thinking has changed:
It’s not about "whether the news is good or bad,"
But about "whether there’s still someone willing to buy in."
Especially now, near $78k, which is already a huge psychological pressure point.
Bulls want to break through;
Bears want to reverse-kill;
Retail investors want to get back to break-even.
So, the market is entering a classic tug-of-war.
Personally, I lean more towards:
Today, BTC is likely to continue oscillating with a slight upward bias, probably in the range of $77.2k to $79.5k.
The reason is simple:
After the Middle East positive news is released, short-term panic decreases;
But what really can push BTC to surge is still dollar liquidity.
If tonight’s U.S. bond yields continue to fall, BTC might take the opportunity to break $80k; but if U.S. stocks open high and then fall, the crypto market could easily experience a "false rebound followed by a real dump."
The most dangerous thing right now isn’t a sharp drop.
It’s a false breakout.
Because this kind of market behavior loves to do:
First, trigger short-squeeze liquidations,
Then, let the bulls stand guard.
To sum it up in one sentence:
The good news has indeed arrived,
But the market now looks more like "doubting while rising."
The real big move depends on who can hold on first. #Polymarket每日热点