Tonight at 11 PM, Kevin Warsh officially takes over for Powell.

The key is, his background and all circumstances are different from everyone else—inflation has been rising for three consecutive months, Middle East tensions are fluctuating, and U.S. stocks remain under pressure at high levels. Rate cuts? The market no longer expects them.

How to interpret this leadership change?

👉 Historically, whenever the Federal Reserve "changes hands," the market is mostly in a wait-and-see phase in the first quarter, with volatility actually tending to narrow, but the real "lock-in period" begins from 3 to 6 months later, during which the pullbacks often reach double digits.

👉 Warsh himself is a "balance sheet reduction advocate," having publicly criticized the Fed's balance sheet as overly "bloated" multiple times, opposing the use of quantitative easing as a long-term tool, and advocating for a more rule-based monetary framework to manage inflation.

Tonight's speech, he only needs to send one signal—that is, to suppress inflation and not relax balance sheet reduction, which will cause risk assets to price in greater uncertainty in advance.

Tonight, focus on his wording; as long as his language leans slightly hawkish, Bitcoin could potentially drop again.
#沃什宣誓就任美联储主席