$77.7k USD becomes a life-and-death line! The most dangerous thing for BTC today isn't a drop, but "tricking you into chasing highs"

Current BTC is increasingly like a scumbag.
Gives you hope;
Then makes you doubt life.
Last night, after the positive US-Iran agreement news came out, Bitcoin temporarily regained the $78k mark. Many people instantly got excited:
"The bull market is back!"
But then looking at the chart:
It couldn't push higher.
Why?
Because the market now doesn't lack good news, it lacks "real money."
Don't be fooled by everyone's mouth saying bull market, in reality, many funds are just watching.
Especially around $77.7k, it has now become a super emotional threshold.
Hold steady, and the market will start fantasizing about $80k;
Break below, and the bears will come out in full force.
The funniest part is:
Retail investors are always predicting the direction;
Main players are always studying "how to make retail investors predict wrong."
That's also why today I am more cautious about "false breakouts."
Because now the market is especially prone to:
Strong rallies during the day;
Diving at night;
Re-inserting spikes in the early morning.
In one sentence:
It's not the market going crazy,
It's the emotions going crazy.
And don't forget, miners' reserves have been decreasing recently.
This means:
Those who truly control BTC production are not that optimistic.
Meanwhile, whale addresses have been frequently moving recently, indicating that big funds are re-strategizing.
But their layout doesn't mean they will immediately push the market up.
Many times:
The most profitable way for main players is to make retail investors get liquidated back and forth.
My prediction for BTC today:
It is most likely to stay in a range of $72,000 to $79k with oscillations.
If the US stock market continues to stay steady tonight, BTC might attempt to break through;
But if the dollar re-strengthens, the market will immediately turn around.
The most critical point now is:
Market sentiment has started to recover,
But trust hasn't come back yet.
So the real danger isn't a drop.
It's:
It makes you feel "it's about to rise."
One sentence:
The most likely trend for BTC today is not a sharp rise or fall, but to torment both bulls and bears.
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