#Polymarket每日热点 Good news from the US and Iran has been implemented. Is BTC rebounding or pulling back?

On May 22nd, news that the final draft of the US-Iran agreement was reached through Pakistan's mediation temporarily pushed Bitcoin back above $78k, but it quickly retreated to around $77.7k and fluctuated. This movement itself has revealed the market's true attitude: the probability that the good news has been fully priced in is higher.

First, in terms of the nature of the news, the "draft" is still a step away from an official agreement. The pace of sanctions relief from the US side differs significantly from Iran's demands, and neither side has confirmed officially. If subsequent negotiations fluctuate, the current rally could be quickly reversed.

Second, market reaction is weak. If there were a strong rebound, Bitcoin should stabilize above $78k and attempt to test the $80k level. However, the fact that it rose sharply and then fell back indicates insufficient buying support, mostly from short covering and short-term speculative funds. Meanwhile, ETF net outflows and Coinbase's negative premium suggest that US institutions have not truly returned.

Furthermore, macroeconomic pressures remain unresolved. April's CPI exceeded expectations (3.8%), and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes leaned hawkish, with high interest rate expectations dampening risk asset sentiment. Geopolitical easing is a positive factor but cannot offset the negative impact of monetary tightening.

Overall judgment: in the short term, a sideways correction is more likely, with $75k becoming a key support level. If there is no substantial progress in subsequent negotiations, Bitcoin may retest previous lows. Caution is advised; do not chase the highs.