5.22 Market Analysis

Trend: Short

Market News:

Vosh announced tonight at 11 PM to be sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair;

Next Monday, due to Memorial Day in the US, the US stock market will be closed.

Trading Data:

Hyperliquid: Whale addresses are not very informative; almost all are high-risk long positions held in anticipation of shorting.

Coinglass: Yesterday’s 24-hour liquidations did not sweep either the upper or lower sides, so short-term reference value is limited. The core is to look at liquidations over the past week and month. ETH saw dense liquidations of short positions between 2159-2174, and dense liquidations of long positions between 2081-2093; BTC experienced very dense long liquidations in the large area of 73629-76056.

US Stocks:

Last week’s weekly chart completed the predicted pattern. According to the forecast, the upper shadow was already formed this week, leaving only the weekly candle closing in the red. If the prediction is correct, tonight’s US stocks, as the last trading day of the week, will likely close with a significant decline.

Technical Analysis:

BTC

Weekly level — Two weeks ago, encountered resistance at the MA30 and pulled back; last week’s weekly candle formed a downpour pattern, indicating the weekly level will continue to decline.

Daily and 12H levels — After briefly breaking below support at 76,588-77,601, a short-term support was formed, reflected by support near the daily EMA50 and 12H MA90. The pattern shows this phase is a rebound in a downtrend continuation zone. The EMA50 on the 12H chart and MA10 on the daily chart, along with the lower edge of resistance at 78,156, form strong resistance. The MA30 and MA180 on the daily, and MA30 and MA60 on the 12H, are all trending downward, forming the next resistance zone (within 78,156-79,257). Even if there is a short-term rebound, there is little room for a significant move.

4H level — EMA50 has failed to break above four times. Early in the session, supported by MA30, a slight rebound occurred. If a fifth attempt to break above this EMA occurs, there’s a high probability of an upward breakout. Meanwhile, a falling flag pattern has formed on the 4H chart. If it breaks above EMA50, based on past experience, it may form a false breakout at the flag’s upper edge, reaching the resistance zones on the 12H and daily charts — 78,718-79,256.

1H level — Moving averages are clearly diverging downward, with multiple resistance levels above. It’s best to refer to the larger cycle resistance levels above for shorting on rebounds.

ETH

Weekly level — After testing EMA20 twice, last week saw a downpour pattern.

Daily level — After several days of consolidation, ETH re-claimed the MA5, but all larger cycle moving averages above are diverging downward, indicating the downtrend will continue.

12H level — Broke below MA180, supported briefly by supply zone, but lacked space to leave the correction phase. The rebound strength is weak. After retesting support at 2088-2140, it has consolidated for 8 candles, unable to break above half of the 12H candle from May 17 night or break through MA180. Coupled with the resonance of EMA20 and the trend resistance line at the lower edge of the downward parallel zone, upward space is very limited (around 2170).

4H level — Moving average resistance is more apparent, with multiple resistance levels at 2160-2204 resonating with the moving averages at this level.

Summary

Support levels are gradually turning into resistance. From the market perspective, the overall trend remains in a downward continuation. Our focus should be on controlling leverage and deploying short positions on rebounds. Short-term opportunities are not elaborated here; instead, combine the 15-minute and 1H smaller cycles for long-short battles. But always take profits on longs when the opportunity arises.

In summary, for BTC, watch whether the resistance zone around 78,156 can be broken. If broken, resistance compresses to 78,718-79,256. For trading, consider shorting at these two levels, with conservative traders waiting until a breakout above the resistance zone before shorting.

ETH remains weak, with all cycle moving averages diverging downward. If a rebound occurs during the day, establish short positions near the daily trend resistance line (around 2154) to 2170. If influenced by US stocks or news leading to a breakout rally, consider adding shorts between 2186-2204.

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 76,588-77,601, 74,806-75,500, 73,024-74,156, 69,483-70,876

Resistance: 78,156-79,257, 80,598-82,656, 83,590-85,140

ETH

Support: 2,088-2,140, 1,990-2,041, 1,894-1,951, 1,820-1,871

Resistance: 2,160-2,204, 2,236-2,273, 2,348-2,390, 2,423-2,475