Lately, I've been thinking about what rules the bull and bear market cycles in the crypto world follow. After observing the market for so many years, I believe there are some things worth discussing in depth.

Speaking of bull and bear transitions, there is actually a relatively stable time logic behind it. Based on historical data, the crypto market's bull and bear cycles roughly repeat every four years. Looking at key points like 2013, 2017, and 2021 makes this clear. Bull markets tend to come quickly and go just as fast, usually lasting about half a year to a year, but bear markets are different—they often last two years or even longer.

I have a particularly deep impression of the 2017 bull run, when Bitcoin skyrocketed past $20k, and social media was all shouting "To the moon." Everyone wanted to jump in and grab a piece of the pie. The craziness back then still seems a bit outrageous in hindsight. But then came the bear market of 2018-2019, which was ice-cold—prices plummeted from tens of thousands of dollars to just a few thousand, many projects went bankrupt, and the market started clearing out the bubbles.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's halving events play a key role in these bull and bear cycles. In the past two halvings, Bitcoin's price increased over tenfold, and it typically takes about 33 months to trigger a new bull run. This cyclical pattern is quite clear, but it’s not rigid—policy changes, economic conditions, and market sentiment can all influence the specific timing.

Regarding future bull and bear cycles, my view is: don’t over-predict, but understand that these cycles exist. During bull markets, avoid over-investing; during bear markets, stay patient. Those who truly survive in the crypto space are not the ones chasing every pump and dump, but those who understand market cycles and stick to long-term value investing.

Blockchain technology continues to advance, and high-quality projects are increasing, but market volatility still persists. Every bull and bear cycle will wipe out some investors and create opportunities for others. Instead of guessing when the next bull run will come, it’s better to think carefully about your investment logic, choose projects with real strength, and stay rational amid cycle fluctuations. Time will prove everything, and investors who have experienced multiple cycles are often the ultimate winners.