If you want to determine whether a company has room to grow, the simplest method is to see if major brokerages have provided target price forecasts for it. If 10 or more brokerages have set target prices, calculate the average target price and compare it with the current target price to estimate the potential upside. What are the benefits of doing this? It’s not surprising if a company is viewed favorably, but if many large institutions are optimistic about it, the probability of being wrong is low. These institutions have conducted extensive research and analysis early on, making full use of their own research, manpower, and information resources (saving retail investors the difficulty of finding targets and conducting research initially), and it’s easy for them to form institutional consensus. Let’s analyze Amazon using this method, a global e-commerce and cloud computing giant.

First tier: Top global investment banks (focusing on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley)
Goldman Sachs: 275 Buy, downgraded slightly from 280 USD on April 14
JPMorgan: 330 Overweight, upgraded from 280 USD on April 30, a 17.9% increase
Morgan Stanley: 330 Overweight, upgraded from 300 USD on April 30, based on AWS exceeding growth expectations
Citigroup: 325 Buy, upgraded from 285 USD on May 4, expecting AWS growth to accelerate further
Bank of America: 310 Buy, upgraded from 298 USD on May 4, driven by Q1 earnings beating expectations

Second tier: Well-known international institutions
UBS: 333 Buy, upgraded from 304 USD on April 30
Mizuho: 300 Buy, upgraded target price on April 30

Third tier: Boutique investment banks
Evercore ISI: 315 Outperform, upgraded from 285 USD on April 30
Piper Sandler: 315 Overweight, upgraded from 260 USD on April 30
KeyBanc: 325 Buy, raised to 325 USD in late April
CMB International: 305 Buy, upgraded from 292 USD on May 4, a 4% increase, optimistic about AWS growth momentum
DA Davidson: 250 Neutral, upgraded from 175 USD on April 30

Currently, Amazon’s stock price is around $274.
First tier average target price: 314 USD (upside potential of 15%)
Second tier average target price: 316 USD (upside potential of 15%)
Third tier average target price: 302 USD (upside potential of 10%)
Using a rough estimate, say around 310 USD, then patiently wait for Amazon to rise to 310 USD.
(Currently holding 2x leveraged ETF-AMZU, patiently waiting for the price to rise from 45 RMB to 58 RMB, which could yield about $5,500–6,000 profit)

Let’s analyze Amazon’s revenue streams:
1. Global e-commerce, accounting for 60%, the core business
2. Amazon Web Services (AWS), 18%, the world’s leading cloud provider (the earliest cloud pioneer, industry leader, technological ceiling), much larger than Microsoft (second) and Google Cloud (third)
3. E-commerce advertising, 10%, seller bidding rankings, very high gross margins, double-digit growth
4. Subscriptions + hardware + entertainment, 12%, such as Prime Video, Kindle, Echo/Alexa smart home devices, Twitch streaming, Kuiper satellite internet project

So, when looking at Amazon, it appears to be the world’s largest online shopping platform on the surface, but internally, it’s a giant in cloud computing and AI infrastructure—using low-cost e-commerce to attract users, and making huge profits from cloud and advertising.

Amazon vs. Nvidia vs. Google:
Nvidia only makes GPUs, aiming to train AI; my cards are the best, just selling shovels.
Amazon is the landlord of AI data centers and computing power factories—doesn’t build large models itself but earns money by renting out computing power.
Microsoft, tied to OpenAI, is the AI front-runner, a leader in AI applications, providing AI services (needed by both individuals and enterprises), with quick deployment and compelling stories.

This article only records personal investment thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice.
The market carries risks; invest cautiously.