Market Expectations and Valuation Analysis — “Market Cap-to-Revenue Ratio” VS “Profitability”: Who Is the Market Pricing For?

OpenAI valued at 42 times revenue, Anthropic valued at 30 times—can the secondary market really handle it?

Valuation is another core dimension of the IPO story. At present, OpenAI’s latest funding valuation is $852 billion, and its target IPO valuation exceeds $1 trillion, which is 28 times the expected revenue for 2026; based on the forward P/E ratio, this multiple is even as high as 42 times. Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio is only 12 times—short-selling master Chanos said bluntly: “NVIDIA has a near-monopoly position, rapid growth, and abundant cash flow. Why should OpenAI be given a higher valuation?” Anthropic’s valuation is slightly higher than OpenAI’s. Its Series H funding valuation is $900 billion, and it is also pushing to reach the $1 trillion club; based on $44 billion in annualized revenue, the price-to-sales ratio is about 20 times.

But on the other side of ultra-fast growth, the profit prospects for both companies are extremely far off. OpenAI expects to turn positive cash flow only by 2030; Anthropic expects to become profitable only by 2028. If inflation rises again and forces the Fed to keep interest rates high, these distant profit forecasts will be discounted substantially—an valuation model that relies on cash flows over the next several decades will be hit the hardest when the cost of capital increases.

Top short-selling institutions are already keeping a close watch on OpenAI. Chanos revealed that some investors can’t wait to short OpenAI stock, and the founder of the trading firm Explosive Options clearly stated that he would not take part in the subscription if the valuation multiple exceeds NVIDIA. Although Anthropic is relatively solid financially, it also faces questions about being overvalued.

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