Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action, a shallow analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, the medium-term downtrend remains ongoing, but after making a new low of 76,006 on May 18, the downward momentum shows clear signs of exhaustion. The wave low points at the 1-hour level are beginning to shift upward—76,006 → 76,440 (May 20) → 76,632 (May 21)—which is an important early signal that the downtrend may be reversing. The wave high points are also moving higher—77,652 → 77,775 → 78,116—confirming that bullish strength is gradually increasing.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): On May 21, the movement was extremely volatile, showing a "rise and fall" pattern. The short-term high points moved down from 78,116 to 78,017 and then to 77,495; the short-term low points moved up from 76,632 to 77,187. Although the lows are still rising, the high points are dropping faster, indicating the short-term trend has shifted from upward to sideways with a bearish bias. The downward pressure line connecting 78,116 and 78,017 has been confirmed effective by the May 22 movement.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but a clear bottoming structure is emerging, weakening the medium-term downtrend. The short-term trend has turned sideways with a bearish bias. The key short-term resistance is 78,116; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term trend will confirm a return to upward; if the rebound stalls around 77,500 and falls below 76,632, the short-term downtrend is confirmed, increasing the risk of further decline toward 76,000.
‌2. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Structure of fractals: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top fractals: Appear at 78,017 (May 21, 17:45), 77,495 (May 22, 00:30), with 78,017 being the most recent significant top fractal.
Bottom fractals: Appear at 76,642 (May 21, 13:30), 77,187 (May 21, 18:45), with the overall lows trending upward (76,642 → 77,187), but the upward movement is narrowing.
Bi and line segments: From the bottom fractal at 76,642 to the top fractal at 78,017, a very strong upward stroke (blue line in the chart) was formed, with a gain of about 1,375. Then from 78,017 to 77,187, a downward stroke (dark red line) with a decline of about 830, roughly 60% of the previous upward move. Next, from 77,187 to 77,495, an upward stroke of only about 308, showing very weak momentum and signs of diminishing bullish force. Currently, from the 77,495 top fractal, the price is constructing a new downward stroke in its early stage.
Central zone: In the 76,500–77,500 range, candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 77,327 is near the upper boundary of this zone, indicating a retest after an upward breakout. If the price can hold above the upper boundary (above 77,500), the breakout is valid, and the outlook is bullish; if it falls back inside the zone (below 77,000), the breakout fails, and the market re-enters consolidation.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke's strength has weakened from very strong (+1,375) to very weak (+308), indicating the bullish force is waning. The current phase is a transition from the end of an upward stroke to the beginning of a new downward stroke. Short-term focus is on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 77,187; if so, the downward stroke is likely to end. If the price directly breaks below 76,800, the downward stroke extends, increasing the risk of further decline toward 76,632.
‌3. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the low of 76,006 on May 18 is divided into a typical 5-wave upward impulsive pattern:
Wave 1: From 76,006 rebound to 77,652, about +1,646. This is a rapid rebound phase, with bullish momentum emerging strongly, laying the foundation for subsequent upward structure.
Wave 2: From 77,652 retrace to 76,820, about -832. The retracement is roughly 50.6% of Wave 1, a standard technical correction that does not damage the upward structure.
Wave 3: From 76,820 to 78,116, about +1,297. Approximately 0.79 times Wave 1, this is the main driving wave with the strongest bullish force.
Wave 4: From 78,116 sharply retraced to 76,632, about -1,484. The retracement reaches 114.4% of Wave 3, a deep correction but within acceptable range, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels.
Wave 5: From 76,632 rebound to 78,017, about +1,385. Roughly 0.84 times Wave 1, the final wave's momentum is decent but unable to surpass Wave 3's high, signaling waning bullish momentum.
Currently, from the high of 78,017, the price has retraced to 77,327, a decline of about 690, roughly 49.8% of Wave 5's range. This suggests two possible scenarios in wave theory:
1. ABC correction: Wave 5 has completed, and the current move is an A wave correction, likely ending around 76,800–77,000, followed by a B wave rebound to 77,500–77,800, then a C wave decline toward 76,500.
2. Wave 5 extension: The current retracement is just a sub-wave (Wave 2) within Wave 5, with subsequent waves 3, 4, and 5 continuing to new highs, targeting above 79,000.
Wave conclusion: The market is in the early stage of a correction after Wave 5 completion. The retracement has reached 50%. If the price stabilizes and rebounds between 77,000 and 76,800, Wave 5 extension is likely; if it breaks below 76,632, the ABC correction is confirmed, increasing the risk of further decline toward 76,000.
‌4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: In the past 3 days, especially on May 21, there was a significant increase in volume, indicating intense battle between bulls and bears. There were 8 volume-increasing bullish candles and 5 volume-increasing bearish candles. The average gain of bullish volume was 252, and the average decline of bearish volume was 192, showing short-term dominance by buyers, but heavy selling pressure at high levels.
Key volume-price nodes:
- May 21, 17:00: A huge volume bullish candle (1.69B) from 77,119 to 77,797, with a real body of 678, confirming strong bullish reversal and healthy volume-price coordination.
- May 21, 18:00: A volume bearish candle (155M) from 77,835 to 77,320, with a real body of 515, nearly erasing most of the previous bullish gains, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels and rapid shift in market sentiment.
- May 22, 00:00: A volume bearish candle (790M) from 77,550 to 77,304, with a real body of 246, confirming active selling dominating the market overnight.
- May 21, 08:00: A bullish candle with a very long upper shadow (495M), with a high of 267, showing heavy selling pressure above 78,100 and failed breakout attempts.
Recent 10x 15-minute candles: From 77,495 oscillating down to 77,327, volume shows alternating pattern of decreasing volume during rebounds and increasing volume during declines, indicating market waiting for a direction in the 77,200–77,400 zone.
Volume-price conclusion: At the end of Wave 5, a massive overbought signal appeared (long upper shadow at 08:00 and volume spike at 17:00 followed by immediate reversal at 18:00), showing extreme divergence at high levels. If subsequent retracement to around 77,000 shows decreasing volume and stabilizes, it confirms bullish dominance; if volume surges downward below 76,800, the bears may reassert control.
‌5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The recent 5 days' volume control point (POC) is at 76,938, which is the most densely traded area, forming the current key value zone.
Current analysis: Price at 77,327 is about 389 above POC, located in the above-value area with moderate deviation. In order flow theory, returning above POC indicates short-term buying advantage, market recovering from discount to fair value. But the current price has fallen from 78,017 toward POC.
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Several HVN zones marked on the chart:
- 77,300–77,500: Resistance HVN (recently dense trading area)
- 76,258–76,349: Strong support HVN (massive volume after May 18 plunge)
- 76,893–76,983: Core support HVN (near POC, now turned support)
Delta analysis (bottom subgraph): Delta shows a sharp positive turn (+97M / +646M) during the rebound from 17:00–17:15 on May 21, confirming active buying. But near 78,017, Delta quickly turns negative (-323M at 18:45), indicating strong active sell pressure. At 00:00 on May 22, Delta again turns sharply negative (-286M), confirming active selling overnight. Currently, Delta has just turned positive (+185M), but MA8 remains negative (-48M), showing buyers have not fully recovered.
Order flow conclusion: Price is above POC but rapidly approaching it. Key resistance levels are 77,500 and 78,000. If Delta remains positive with volume breakout at these levels, further upward move toward 78,500 is possible; if Delta stays negative and price drops below 76,800, the risk of retracement toward POC 76,938 increases.
‌6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and resistance levels (orange dashed lines):
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 82,054 (rebound high), 81,647 (previous wave high), 78,116 (recent high), 78,017 (May 21 high)
- Key resistance: 77,775 (May 20 high), 77,652 (May 20, 12:00 high), 77,500 (psychological level)
- Key support: 77,187 (May 21, 18:45 low), 76,632 (May 21, 13:00 low, recent support), 76,500 (psychological level), 76,440 (May 20 low), 76,006 (May 18 plunge low)
K-line patterns:
- May 21, 08:00: A bullish candle with a very long upper shadow (body 35, upper shadow 268) near 78,116, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.
- May 21, 17:00: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 678, upper shadow 220) at 78,017, showing bullish strength but waning enthusiasm at high levels.
- May 21, 18:00: A large bearish candle (body 515), nearly erasing most of the previous bullish gains, forming a "bearish engulfing" pattern, confirming a short-term top.
- May 22, 00:00: A volume bearish candle, continuing downward pressure, short-term bearish dominance.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Downward channel (connecting 78,116 and 78,017 with a downward pressure line)
- Medium-term: Since May 18's 76,006, a correction has appeared within the upward trend, but the upward trendline (connecting 76,006, 76,440, 76,632) has not been broken.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in a critical zone between the middle of the downward channel and previous lows. 77,500 is a key level: a breakout confirms a return to the uptrend targeting above 78,000; a rejection and fall back could test support around 76,800–77,000.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with signs of medium-term bottoming; short-term trend is sideways with a bearish bias, with key levels at 78,116 (up) and 76,632 (down). Chan Theory shows the upward stroke's strength weakening from very strong to very weak, currently transitioning from the end of an upward move to the beginning of a downward move, with focus on the bottom fractal near 77,187. Elliott Wave suggests Wave 5 may be complete, with a retracement phase underway, with 50% retracement around 77,000. Volume-price signals show a massive overbought divergence and volume spike at high levels. Order flow indicates the price is retreating from the value area, with POC at 76,938, and Delta MA8 still negative. Price action shows "shooting star" and "bearish engulfing" patterns, indicating short-term bearishness.
Short-term strategy:
- Bullish scenario: If price shows continuous decreasing volume to stabilize around 77,000 with bottom fractal formation and Delta turning positive, consider light long positions targeting 77,500 → 78,000 with stop-loss at 76,500.
- Bearish scenario: If rebound to 77,500–77,800 forms a top fractal with volume decline and confirms the end of the upward stroke + Wave 5 correction extension, consider short positions targeting 76,632 → 76,000 with stop-loss at 78,100.
Current state: At 77,327, the market is in a fierce battle zone. The short-term bias is bearish, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. It is recommended to wait for clearer signals before entering, and in the 76,800–77,500 zone, consider light high-low trading with strict stop-loss settings.