Elon Musk's "One-Man Dynasty," ringing the bell on June 12

Article: Su Yang

Editor: Xu Qingyang

On May 20th, U.S. local time, SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), initiating the Nasdaq IPO process, with the stock ticker "SPCX." The company plans to raise between $70 billion and $80 billion through this IPO, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. It is expected to list on Nasdaq on June 12th.

This is the largest IPO in human history, and also Elon Musk’s first appearance in the public market with absolute control. After listing, he still holds 85.1% of the voting rights, leaving almost no voice for public shareholders.

As early as April 1st this year, SpaceX had submitted a confidential draft of its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, codenamed "Project Apex," marking the first formal legal step in the IPO process.

According to the prospectus, Goldman Sachs leads the underwriting syndicate, with Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and 16 other underwriters serving as co-managers, jointly participating in this issuance.

This submission of the prospectus is also SpaceX’s first public disclosure of its financial secrets—Starlink is a cash cow, while xAI is a money-burning black hole. Musk has transformed a space company into a "AI + aerospace" super narrative. So, what exactly supports the $2 trillion valuation?

01 Starlink earns $11.4 billion annually, AI business loses $6.4 billion in a single quarter

SpaceX’s financial data presents a "cold and hot" duality.

SpaceX’s key financial data

In 2025, SpaceX achieved a consolidated revenue of $18.67 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $17.5k, but operational losses reached $20k, and net losses nearly $4.94 billion. Almost all losses come from the AI business—xAI lost $6.4 billion in 2025, while Starlink contributed $4.4 billion in operating profit during the same period. The money earned in space is almost entirely burned on large models on the ground.

In the first quarter of 2026, the company’s revenue was $20k, with an adjusted EBITDA of $6.58B, and operating losses of $2.59B.

Looking at the business segments, the connectivity business, Starlink, contributed $3.26 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of revenue, making it the main driver; AI business (xAI) revenue was $818 million; space operations (including rocket launches and government contracts) brought in $619 million.

SpaceX’s core business financials

From the balance sheet perspective, as of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held $15.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, $7.8 billion in marketable securities, with total assets of $102.1 billion and total liabilities of $60.5 billion, including about $30.3 billion in debt and finance leases.

Even with hundreds of billions in cash, facing annual capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion, the company’s cash flow pressure remains immense.

Starlink’s operational data is equally astonishing.

Highlights of SpaceX’s space business

The prospectus shows that as of March 31, 2026, Starlink had 10.3 million users, up from 8.9 million at the end of 2025, a net increase of 1.4 million users in one quarter. About 9,600 satellites are in orbit. Starlink’s adjusted EBITDA reached $7.2 billion, with an EBITDA profit margin of 63%, up 22 percentage points from 41% in 2023. Free cash flow is about $3 billion, making it the only business segment of SpaceX capable of generating positive cash flow.

However, the average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) declined from $99 in 2023 to $81 in 2025, and further to $66 in the first quarter of 2026, a drop of over 30% in two and a half years.

This is a typical price-for-scale strategy—SpaceX actively lowers prices to rapidly expand its user base, but as scale increases, individual user payment capacity declines. If ARPU continues to fall, to meet long-term revenue expectations, user growth must outpace the decline in prices.

In 2025, SpaceX’s annual capital expenditure was $20.7 billion, exceeding its total revenue for the year, with AI spending reaching $12.7 billion—more than the combined total of its space and satellite businesses.

SpaceX’s capital expenditure and cash flow

xAI burns about $1 billion per month on average, with annual cash consumption around $14 billion. For comparison, OpenAI and Anthropic burned approximately $9 billion and $4 billion respectively in 2025, making SpaceX’s AI division surpass both combined. Spending is aggressive, but in terms of revenue scale and growth rate, xAI lags far behind its two major competitors.

More noteworthy is the valuation multiple.

SpaceX’s IPO target valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion corresponds to about 266 times EBITDA. In comparison, Meta’s multiple is 16x, Alphabet’s is 25x, Nvidia’s is 36x, and even Tesla, known for high valuations, is only at 119x.

Landing on the public market with a valuation more than twice Tesla’s multiple raises questions: is this a value discovery or a bubble narrative? The market’s first test after listing.

The prospectus also clearly states: "No dividends will be paid to Class A shareholders in the foreseeable future." This means investors can only bet on stock price appreciation—this is a pure growth stock with no parachutes.

02 85% voting rights: Musk’s "one-man dynasty"

SpaceX employs a multi-tiered equity structure. The company issues Class A common stock (1 vote per share) to public investors, and Class B common stock (10 votes per share) held by Musk and insiders.

Management and board ownership

According to the prospectus, Musk owns about 42.5% of SpaceX’s shares, but with B-class super voting rights, he controls approximately 84% to 85.1% of total voting rights. This means that after listing, regardless of how many shares the public buys, Musk alone can decide the composition of the board, major mergers, and even amend the company’s bylaws.

The prospectus also discloses that Musk will continue to serve as CEO, CTO, and Chairman, with the authority to unilaterally dismiss or fill B-class director seats. SpaceX will also apply for a "controlled company" exemption, avoiding the governance rules requiring a majority of independent directors.

Apart from Musk, no other shareholder holds more than 5%. But among SpaceX’s shareholders are notable institutions: Alphabet (Google’s parent company), as an early strategic investor, holds about 5%; Fidelity owns about 2%; Silicon Valley venture capital firms Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, Sequoia Capital, among others, hold roughly 10%. There are also hedge funds like D1 Capital, Darsana, and sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East. SpaceX has also set up a large stock option pool for employees to incentivize core technical teams.

In Silicon Valley, multi-tiered ownership structures are quite common. According to Fenwick’s 2025 corporate governance survey, 27.3% of the top 150 tech companies in Silicon Valley still adopt multi-tiered structures, far exceeding the 10.1% in the S&P 100. But each company’s design varies.

However, SpaceX employs this control mechanism to an unprecedented degree—85% of voting rights concentrated in one person, making it especially prominent among tech giants.

Looking back at Musk’s other publicly listed company, Tesla, the situation is quite different. Tesla follows a "one share, one vote" principle, without super voting rights, so Musk often faces challenges from activist shareholders.

03 xAI merger: the "narrative engine" for a $2.5 trillion valuation

Located at the "COLOSSUS II" facility in Memphis, Tennessee

In February this year, SpaceX completed the acquisition of xAI at a total valuation of $1.25 trillion, with xAI valued at $250 billion. Before the merger, SpaceX’s standalone valuation was about $1 trillion, so the AI story added roughly $250 billion in premium.

This deal has two immediate effects. First, revenue growth—AI business contributed $818 million in Q1 2026. Second, narrative upgrade—SpaceX shifted from a "space company" to a "AI + space" conglomerate.

Wall Street’s valuation expectations for SpaceX have also been raised from $1.25 trillion to between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.

The prospectus also reveals more ambitious future plans. SpaceX intends to deploy the first orbital AI computing modules before the end of this decade, running AI computing infrastructure in space.

xAI business highlights

Musk believes that producing AI compute power in space is cheaper than on Earth.

Meanwhile, SpaceX also mentions plans for space mining—extracting metals from near-Earth asteroids. These plans currently have no revenue and no prototypes, but they are among the most exciting pages in the prospectus and also the biggest points of valuation disagreement.

04 Terafab, Cursor acquisitions, and financial services: Musk’s "ecosystem reversal"

The prospectus also contains several less obvious strategic layouts.

Among them, SpaceX and Tesla jointly announced the Terafab project, aiming to integrate all stages of semiconductor manufacturing into one system, producing two types of chips: one for Tesla’s full self-driving system, Optimus humanoid robot, and Robotaxi fleet, and another for radiation-resistant high-power space chips.

According to public information, the project’s total investment could reach up to $119 billion, using Intel’s 14A process, with the goal of directing 80% of computing capacity toward space orbit AI data centers.

Additionally, SpaceX plans to acquire Cursor with Class A common stock after the IPO, with an implied equity value of $60 billion. SpaceX has an exclusive option to acquire Cursor at this valuation, which can be exercised 30 days after the IPO, with a reverse breakup fee of up to $10 billion. Cursor’s core engineering team has already joined xAI.

The company also plans to launch a financial product covering payments, banking, and other services, extending into the financial sector.

All these businesses are in early stages, require heavy spending, and depend on SpaceX’s financing ability and Musk’s storytelling prowess.

05 Market divergence: underwriters and skepticism coexist

The lineup of underwriters has experienced an unexpected reversal, reflecting Wall Street’s divided opinions.

Morgan Stanley, which has maintained close ties with Musk for a long time, was displaced by Goldman Sachs as the lead underwriter, surprising some market observers, given Morgan Stanley’s past leadership in Tesla’s IPO and Twitter’s acquisition financing.

Jay Ritter, a scholar at the University of Florida known as the "IPO Guru," explicitly stated that if SpaceX’s valuation reaches $2 trillion, he would short the stock once it goes public. Ritter further pointed out that new stocks with inflation-adjusted revenue over $100 million and a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 40 tend to significantly underperform the market over the next three years.

Greater concern centers on the losses from AI business—xAI lost $6.4 billion in 2025, and the $4.4 billion profit from Starlink cannot fill this gap. If AI continues to burn cash without commercializing as expected, SpaceX’s overall profitability will face sharp pressure.

James Picariello, an analyst at BNP Paribas, bluntly said that SpaceX’s IPO will "split" the retail investor base supporting Musk, putting pressure on Tesla’s stock price.

Joseph Spak, an UBS analyst, warned earlier that heavy investments in hardware AI might just be the beginning. Meanwhile, Musk’s simultaneous leadership of Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, X, and other companies raises concerns about management distraction—an issue some institutional investors keep questioning.

06 Conclusion

June 12th will be a nationwide referendum on "Musk’s premium."

Starlink provides a solid cash cow, xAI offers a sexy narrative, and Musk provides absolute control. The upside is high decision-making efficiency; the downside is the lack of brakes.

Goldman Sachs calls this IPO a once-in-a-generation opportunity, but some analysts compare it to buying a lottery ticket—the jackpot is Mars, the consolation prize is Earth.

Cook handed Apple over to Tenuis, a hardware engineer successor, but Musk has no intention of handing SpaceX to anyone—listing is just adding a group of non-voting passengers, with only him in the cockpit.

How to put it? That’s very Musk.