India's recent moves have directly turned the prediction market into an underground industry.

According to ThePrint, an official from India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology stated that the Indian central government has issued a blocking order to Polymarket and is moving forward to issue the earliest blocking order to Kalshi on Friday to enforce the ban on prediction market platforms still operating in India. The report said that Kalshi and Polymarket had previously been asked to cease operations in India but still allowed Indian users to register and trade; the relevant orders are expected to be issued under Section 69A of the Information Technology Act, requiring internet service providers to block access at the network level, with intermediaries that fail to comply facing up to 7 years in prison and fines. India's "Online Gaming (Regulation and Promotion) Act, 2025" came into effect on May 1, banning real-money online gaming and its provision, advertising, and related financial transactions.