Polymarket bets 72% by the end of the year. Do I believe this odds or not?

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that although a confidential IPO application may be submitted soon, the timing of the listing depends on factors such as the market, with the earliest target being September, and the schedule remaining flexible. Investment banks are assisting in drafting the prospectus, and there are still concerns in the market about whether revenue can cover data center expenses. Polymarket predicts an 8% chance of going public by the end of August, 42% by the end of September, and 72% by the end of the year.