Are you truly prepared for the second half of the bear market? Over the past few months, reviewing on-chain data has given me some renewed insights.

Honestly, no one can make perfectly accurate predictions. But through this bear cycle, I’ve learned one thing: behind the data, there are real people, and it’s all about the complex interplay of their actions and emotions. It’s not just about repeating history; understanding market participants’ psychology is key.

Personally, I completed my bottoming purchases around an average of $21k from December last year to March this year. Since then, I’ve adjusted my strategy based on on-chain indicators. However, during the January correction phase, I misjudged the situation. I was influenced by the fixed four-year cycle belief until the bear market truly took hold. My initial forecast was a maximum decline of 30%, but in reality, it dropped even more.

But what’s important is that I learned from that. I lowered costs with laddered orders and left room for correction. Then, on January 10th, I caught a key signal with the “Comprehensive Cost Basis Model.” It confirmed the start of the second half of the bear market. During the subsequent rebound, I was able to share the last chance to escape with my friends.

Now, many people are asking, “When is the bottom?” Honestly, I can’t predict the exact bottom with certainty. But now that the major trend of the bear market is clear, the most effective strategy becomes obvious.

The next six months should be spent continuing regular investments. This way, you won’t miss this valuable opportunity. If you stick strictly to this plan and hold until the next peak, there’s a 99.99% chance you won’t lose money. All that’s needed is the patience to endure this boring, lengthy process.

Based on current simulations, there’s a possibility of further declines of 10% to 20% from the current level. I estimate it will take another 3 to 5 months to build a bottom. During that time, it’s crucial to monitor on-chain sentiment, liquidity drought points, whale movements, supply and demand dynamics, cost basis, futures premiums, and changes in options market structure.

The harsh winter is nearing its end. Hope is on the horizon for the next peak. Let’s reach it together, without leaving anyone behind, in our community.