Polymarket bets on the end-of-year shutdown being halved, are the markets more optimistic than politicians?

ME News reports that Trump stated at the White House that Iran must hand over high-enriched uranium, which the U.S. is likely to destroy after receiving; he said that the U.S. and Iran are still negotiating, and the outcome remains to be seen. The report also mentions PolyBeats monitoring, with Polymarket predicting the probability of Iran stopping uranium enrichment: 9% by the end of May, 23% by the end of June, and 52% by the end of the year.