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Just came across this fascinating historical theory by Samuel Benner from way back in 1875, and honestly, it's got me thinking about the periods when to make money in markets.
So basically, Benner was trying to map out economic cycles and identified three distinct periods that repeat roughly every 18-20 years. The pattern goes like this: you've got your panic years where financial crises hit hard, then boom years where everything recovers and prices spike, and finally recession periods where things cool down.
What's interesting is how he breaks down the optimal periods when to make money. According to the theory, recession years (like 2023, 2032, 2040, 2050) are actually your golden window to buy—stocks, assets, land, whatever. Prices are depressed, nobody wants to touch things. That's exactly when smart money moves in and accumulates.
Then there are the boom years. 2020, 2026, 2034, 2043, 2054—these are the periods when you're supposed to sell and take your profits. Markets are recovering hard, prices are climbing, sentiment is hot. This is when you exit positions and lock in gains.
The panic years though? 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, 2035, 2053—Benner warns to be extremely cautious during these windows. Financial collapses happen, markets seize up. The advice is clear: don't panic sell. Just hold and prepare.
Now, here's the thing—this isn't some magic formula. Benner himself knew markets are influenced by countless variables: politics, wars, technological shifts, economic policy changes. But as a long-term framework for understanding the periods when to make money? It's actually pretty solid. It gives you a macro perspective on where we might be in the cycle and how to position yourself accordingly.
The core strategy is simple: buy when others are fearful during recessions, hold through the panic, then sell aggressively during booms. Rinse and repeat. Whether you're looking at traditional markets or crypto, this cyclical thinking about optimal periods for entry and exit still holds real value.