Recently, there has been a rather interesting geopolitical development. While the entire world is focused on the situation between the US and Iran, Turkey has made an unexpected move. In March, Erdogan publicly condemned the United States and Israel, yet spoke up for Iran instead—an action that left many people truly stunned. After all, Turkey is a NATO member and, on paper, an ally of the United States. How could it suddenly “turn around” and deal the US a knife in the back?

But you need to understand Erdogan’s logic—it’s actually not complicated at all. Turkey and Iran share a border line of just over 500 kilometers. Once the situation in the Middle East heats up, the country most directly affected is Turkey. During the previous war in Syria, Turkey was forced to accept more than 3.5 million refugees. Its domestic job market became saturated; welfare spending placed enormous pressure on the government. The economy was already not doing well, and inflation remained high. If you were Erdogan, would you be foolish enough to drag your own country into even deeper trouble just to please the United States?

Put simply, Turkey and Iran’s economic ties have gone far beyond surface-level diplomacy. Their annual bilateral trade value can exceed $10 billion. They depend on one another for agricultural products, building materials, and electrical equipment. Turkey needs Iran’s energy and export markets, and Iran also needs to use Turkey’s overland routes to bypass US sanctions. If Turkey were to follow US sanctions against Iran, Turkey’s own businesses and farmers would suffer as well. As president, Erdogan cannot joke around with the country’s economic prospects and political future.

Even more importantly, Turkey controls the Bosporus Strait, through which roughly 3% of global seaborne oil shipping passes. If the US and Iran truly went to war, and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey’s straits would become a strategic gateway for global energy transportation. This leverage would be enough to give Erdogan more say in the Middle East war situation. Rather than letting the US hold the cards over Turkey, it’s better to use Turkey’s geographical advantage to tilt the balance.

Erdogan also has a bigger calculation. He doesn’t want to keep playing the role of the US’s subordinate forever; he wants Turkey to become a real power in the Middle East. Right now, Qatar and Iraq are both acting as mediators between the US and Iran—so how could Erdogan possibly fall behind? By stepping forward to condemn the US and Israel and to speak in support of Iran, he is essentially proactively intervening in the US-Iran conflict, aiming to position Turkey as a mediator between the two sides. As long as he can help bring about negotiations or a ceasefire, Turkey’s status in the Middle East can rise significantly. At that point, whether it’s the US or Europe, they would both have to look at Turkey’s stance.

Of course, Erdogan is not stupid either. He knows the risk that the fighting could reach his doorstep. So, while he loudly calls for opposition to war and for rationality, he is also increasing deployments of air defense systems and special forces in provinces near Iran to strengthen surveillance against drones and rockets. The concern is not only Iran—it is any side that might stir trouble amid the chaos, especially the fear that Kurdish armed groups could take advantage of the situation to create incidents along the border.

He has also quietly coordinated his position with Russia. Although Turkey and Russia have contradictions in Syria, they share the same objective of preventing the US-Iran war from expanding. With Russia as a backer, Turkey’s spine becomes a bit stiffer when dealing with the United States.

To say that Turkey has betrayed NATO or betrayed the US is, in a sense, simply pragmatic. In great-power games, the smartest way for a small country to survive is to prioritize its own interests first. When the US stirs things up in the Middle East, it only looks at its own interests—no matter whether the region turns chaotic or whether allies live or die. Back then in the Gulf War, Turkey followed the US in sanctioning Iraq, and the result was its own economic collapse, with inflation soaring. Erdogan remembers this lesson clearly and doesn’t want to repeat it.

The US thinks it is the global hegemon, and that all allies must listen to it. But it forgets one thing: allies also have their own interests and bottom lines. Turkey’s counter-move—a knife in the back, as it were—is essentially a reminder to the US: don’t keep abusing your hegemonic power, and don’t keep treating allies like tools. Otherwise, the allies around you will all drift away from you. In international politics, there are no eternal allies—only eternal interests.