I just reread some concepts that I believe are super useful for understanding the volatility of the crypto market. Let's talk about the meaning of the black swan, which is something we should all understand better.

First, why is it called that? It turns out that in ancient times, Europeans were convinced that all swans were white. It was almost a universal law in their minds. But when they discovered black swans in Australia, everything changed. Expectations were shattered. And that is precisely what it represents: the impossible becoming real, what no one expected.

The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, and it basically describes extremely rare and unpredictable events that have a massive impact. The interesting thing is that after they happen, everyone says "ah, of course, I should have seen it coming." But that is retrospective bias playing tricks on us.

Taleb makes a crucial point: traditional statistical models cannot capture these events because they are based on historical data. If something has never happened before, how do you predict it? It’s impossible. And this is where most people go wrong. They assume that because the past was safe, the future will be too. But in reality, most significant changes are neither linear nor predictable.

In markets like crypto, this is especially relevant. We are constantly building narratives that make us believe we control the situation, when in fact there are many unknowns. The black swan meaning reminds us that uncertainty is much greater than we like to admit. When facing the unknown, we tend to fill the gaps with our own explanations, creating the illusion that we understand what is happening.

It’s a humble reminder that surprises are always waiting. Some events simply cannot be predicted, no matter how much data you analyze.