It is interesting to note that gold has already set new all-time highs in almost all world currencies back in early 2024. This was the final confirmation that we have entered a new bullish cycle for the yellow metal. And if we look at the long-term forecast for gold over the next 5 years, the picture appears quite optimistic.

According to my analysis, we are seeing the completion of a powerful cup with handle formation, which has been developing for a full 10 years (from 2013 to 2023). This is no coincidence — prolonged consolidations are usually precursors to strong upward movements. The 50-year gold chart also confirms the strength of the current reversal. Such patterns on such large timeframes rarely deceive.

Regarding specific target levels, the gold forecast for the coming years looks as follows: in 2025, the metal is expected to approach $3100; in 2026, a move toward $3900-4000 is anticipated; and by 2030, a breakthrough to $5000 is possible. These are not just numbers out of thin air — they are based on analysis of monetary dynamics, inflation expectations, and technical patterns.

The main fundamental driver here is inflation expectations. Gold simply shines in an environment of rising inflation. Many analysts focus on supply and demand or economic cycles, but they miss the point. Inflation expectations (tracked through TIP ETF) are what truly move the price. And this indicator is in a long-term upward channel, supporting a bullish scenario.

The money supply M2 and the consumer price index also demonstrate steady growth. The divergence between M2 and gold prices that we saw earlier was a temporary phenomenon. This suggests a mild but consistent increase in metal prices in the coming years, rather than a explosive jump.

Looking at leading indicators, the euro appears constructive on long-term charts. This creates a favorable environment for gold, as the metal tends to reverse with the strength of the dollar. Treasury bonds also support the position — they are bullish on century-long charts, which is good for gold.

An interesting point: on the futures market, the positions of commercial traders remain heavily skewed toward short positions. This could limit the pace of growth but also creates potential for a reversal when these positions are closed.

When I compare my forecast for gold over the next 5 years with the consensus of major financial institutions, I see an interesting picture. Goldman Sachs, UBS, BofA, J.P. Morgan, and Citi Research mostly agree on a range of $2700-2800 in 2025. But my analysis indicates higher targets — $3100 for 2025 and further growth. This discrepancy reflects my confidence in the strength of leading indicators and historical patterns on the charts.

In past years, my gold forecasts have been phenomenally accurate. This gives me confidence in the current analysis. The only time I was wrong was the forecast for 2021, but overall, the methodology works.

A key point for investors: if gold falls and remains below $1770, it would invalidate the entire bullish thesis. But the probability of that is extremely low, given the current dynamics. Therefore, I expect moderate but steady growth in gold over the next few years, with acceleration later in this decade. This could be a good opportunity for long-term investors who have not yet increased their positions in the metal.