I recently have one sentence about options: this thing called time value mainly eats into the buyer's patience (of course, the seller isn't just getting it for free; they’re betting on “not making big waves”). As a buyer, even if you're right about the direction, being a half-beat slow or a bit hesitant, the premium will shrink on its own; as a seller, time is on your side, but if a big shock hits, it doesn’t make much sense to lose money.

These days, I’ve also heard news about tax hikes and tighter compliance in certain regions, the most direct sign being that everyone's expectations for deposits and withdrawals are changing: some are eager to jump in, others eager to pull out, and volatility can come suddenly. Buyers like these “sudden moves,” while sellers have to consider whether they’re selling a “calm ticket.”

I treat complexity as an enemy: buyers buy “speed,” sellers sell “not rushing.” Anyway, I don’t really believe in mysticism; I mostly look at whether on-chain funds are starting to become restless. That’s all for now.