I just realized something quite interesting about token unlocks – they don't always put downward pressure on prices as people usually think. Today I want to share some observations about this phenomenon.

Token unlock is the process of releasing tokens from a locked state into circulation. It’s that simple, but its impact on the market price is very complex. It involves supply and demand, market psychology, and especially the motives of those who receive the tokens.

I’ll take TRUMP coin as an example to illustrate. When a large unlock occurs, the price tends to fluctuate quite strongly at that time. But interestingly, the price recovers very quickly afterward – rising more than 60% within a few days after positive news. This shows that token unlocks are not always a negative signal.

But with Aptos (APT), it’s different. I’ve seen three token unlocks of APT follow a similar pattern: before the unlock, the price is at a local bottom, then gradually rises until the unlock date, creating a false sense of optimism. After that, the price plunges. The third time was interrupted by a sharp Bitcoin decline, but if there hadn’t been a general market movement, APT would likely repeat the same pattern.

So what’s the way to avoid surprises? Track the unlock schedule in advance. I use Tokenomist because of its intuitive interface, detailed unlock events, quantities, percentages, and recipient groups. DeFiLlama is also a good choice to filter by date or amount. Most projects also announce on X, Discord, or Medium, and some even hold AMAs to explain their plans.

But don’t rush to sell just because an unlock is coming. You need to analyze more deeply: who will the tokens go to? The team, investors, or the community? Do they have motives to sell? Is there any accompanying news? If the unlock is for the community, such as airdrops or staking rewards, the reaction is usually more positive.

In reality, token unlocks are both opportunities and risks. Not every unlock causes prices to drop. I recommend combining tracking the unlock schedule with technical analysis and news to make smarter decisions. Wishing you successful trading, especially those who rely on token unlocks to find opportunities.