I just thought again about a pretty interesting concept in crypto — what is a black swan that causes such a big impact? Actually, it was defined long ago by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, but in the cryptocurrency market, this concept becomes especially important.

What exactly is a black swan? It’s simply rare, unexpected events that no one can predict, but when they happen, they create enormous impacts on the entire market. The interesting part is that after the event occurs, people try to explain it logically, even though no one saw it coming beforehand.

An interesting fact is that black swans in crypto often appear when you least expect them. The crypto market is still young and heavily dependent on external factors, so unexpected shocks are more likely to happen compared to traditional markets. Every time a major event occurs, prices fluctuate wildly, affecting not just one coin but the entire ecosystem.

Looking back at history, I see many black swan events that left deep marks. COVID-19 suddenly appeared at the end of 2019 and disrupted the global economy. Then came the collapse of FTX in 2022 — a major exchange unexpectedly went bankrupt, causing Bitcoin and the entire market to plummet. Everyone remembers the LUNA/UST crash that same year, when the Terra ecosystem was completely destroyed, losing tens of billions of dollars and trust in algorithmic stablecoins. China also caused shocks by repeatedly banning crypto mining and trading. Even Bitcoin dropped from its peak of $64,000 down below $30,000 in just a few weeks in 2021.

The danger of these events is that liquidity can disappear entirely, making it impossible to sell assets even if you want to. Trust is severely damaged, especially for projects or exchanges directly affected. Large investors might take advantage of the low prices to accumulate assets, but small investors suffer heavy losses.

The lesson from these events is quite clear — you need to manage risks carefully, avoid putting all your money into one asset. Diversification is essential, and always keep part of your capital in stablecoins or traditional assets to be ready for such shocks. Keeping a close eye on news is also important because black swans often originate from big news like bankruptcies or bans. I believe understanding what a black swan is will help you better prepare mentally and strategically for unpredictable shocks.