I look at whether the project is doing things seriously, and I don't really pay attention to slogans first; I look at the treasury expenditures. Where is the money spent, and can it be linked to milestones? For example, if they need to develop a new version, conduct audits, or do business development, but the on-chain records always show a bunch of transfers labeled "consultant fees" or "market cooperation," it looks a bit fishy. Conversely, if the payment recipients are clear, the rhythm is steady, and they can deliver the outputs at the milestones, even if it's slow, I am willing to give them time.

Recently, everyone has been using ETF capital flows and U.S. stock risk appetite to explain the rise and fall; honestly, they are just emotional amplifiers. The more this happens, the more I want to see if the team is still pushing forward during bear markets or just holding meetings and making empty promises based on market trends. It's even more obvious with LPs—without milestones to support the hype, it ultimately just comes down to rebalancing and soothing oneself to sleep.