The "Trump Paradox" of the midterm elections: The stronger he is, the more dangerous the Republican Party becomes

Original Title: The Trump paradox: What’s good for him is weighing down his party
Original Author: the Washington Post

Compiled by: Peggy

Editor’s note: Trump’s political paradox is becoming increasingly clear: his support among voters nationwide continues to slide, while his dominance within the Republican Party keeps getting stronger.

The focus of this article is not whether Trump can still influence the Republican Party, but in what way this influence is reshaping the party’s election prospects before voters go to the polls. On one hand, he compels candidates in the party to pledge allegiance to him through endorsements, primary challenges, and political purges. On the other hand, this kind of political filtering based on personal loyalty may also weaken the Republican Party’s competitiveness in the general election.

From Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy to Republican primary races in Indiana and Texas, Trump’s “politics of revenge” continues to demonstrate his ability to mobilize the party’s grassroots. But the problem is that winning a party primary does not mean winning a national election. For the Republicans, the real risk is not that Trump cannot control the party, but that the more deeply he controls it, the narrower the space the party may have among independent and moderate voters.

Even more worth watching is that Trump’s show of strength has not translated into effective legislative ability. On issues such as the gas tax, voting legislation, immigration funding, and military action toward Iran, there remains clear tension between him and Republican lawmakers in Congress. This means Trump can force party members to signal their loyalty, but may not be able to push them to bear the full costs of his political agenda.

Trump has built a party that is highly loyal to him. Even when the executive actions he takes anger a broader public, the Republican Party still chooses to follow. Ironically, this political structure weakens his influence among voters beyond his base.

For the midterm elections, the biggest variable the Republican Party is facing right now may not be the Democratic Party—it may be Trump himself. For Trump, victories in the primaries are consolidating his authority within the party; but for the Republican Party, these victories may also be pushing it toward a harder-to-win general election.

The following is the original text:

After arriving at the White House on Friday aboard Marine One, Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn. (Eric Lee/Pool/The Washington Post)

President Donald Trump does not believe in the so-called “political gravity law.”

Nationwide, the more his stature declines—multiple polls show his support is approaching historic lows—the more he pulls the Republican Party firmly under his will, and through a series of unpopular, even openly brazen actions, endangers this Republican Party, which has his head bowed to him, in the fall election prospects.

The result is: this president is so forceful in demanding political loyalty within the party that it is nearly unprecedented in history, yet his frequent executive actions continually alienate the broader public. This paradox leads to his increasing reluctance—and lack of ability—to address the issues voters care about most through Congress. And it appears Trump is neither willing nor able to break this cycle.

On Tuesday, Trump secured one of the “trophies” he wanted most: libertarian-leaning Republican U.S. Representative Thomas Massie (a Republican from Kentucky) was removed from office. This eight-term congressman is one of Trump’s most well-known Republican critics in the House, and he had taken the lead in pushing the release of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump initially opposed the move, until he realized he could not stop it, at which point he changed his stance.

Massie was badly defeated in the primary by a political newcomer—Ed Garlre, a former Navy SEAL—who had previously been almost unknown. Garlre was personally selected by Trump and received support of tens of millions of dollars from organizations aligned with Trump.

Three days before Massie’s defeat, Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy also suffered a loss. Trump had previously called Cassidy “very disloyal.” Five years ago, during the second impeachment trial over the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Cassidy voted to convict Trump. Although the senator afterward kept trying to repair his relationship with Trump, and the process often looked awkward, in the end he failed to even reach the runoff.

Earlier this month, Trump’s “revenge tour” swept through Indiana. Republican voters answered his call by removing five of the seven state senators. These individuals had refused to redraw the state’s congressional districts according to Trump’s demands. Another election was still too close to call; the latest count showed that the two candidates were separated by only two votes.

On Tuesday, Trump once again flexed his political muscle: in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, he announced his support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The move frustrated many Republicans on Capitol Hill, because Cornyn has long been seen as the more electable candidate. If Paxton wins, the GOP would likely have to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into this deep-red state to ensure its candidate ultimately prevails—money that could otherwise be used to support candidates elsewhere.

But as is often the case, Trump made it clear that this decision was personal rather than tactical or policy-driven. Cornyn has criticized Trump at times in the past; although he has recently tried to curry favor with Trump, he even recently proposed a bill to name one of America’s longest highways after Trump.

But it was to no avail. When Trump posted a statement supporting Paxton on social media, he wrote: “John Cornyn is a good man, and I’ve enjoyed working with him, but during my tough times, he didn’t support me.”

“I actually believe that MAGA has never been more united,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. But if the Republican Party wants to keep controlling Congress in the fall elections, it must win support from a substantial portion of other voters. In Trump’s view, this election is about his own political survival.

Earlier this year, in January, at a GOP House retreat meeting, he said: “You have to win the midterms, because if we don’t win the midterms, then it will become—I mean, they will find a reason to impeach me. I will be impeached.”

But for now, the biggest drag on whether the Republican Party can hold onto its narrow majorities in the House and Senate is Trump himself. The latest example is a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday: the public strongly disapproves of Trump’s war against Iran and does not support his handling of cost-of-living issues. Even on his strongest immigration issue, Trump’s support lags by 15 percentage points.

Among key independent voters, Trump’s support has fallen to 26%. Forty-seven percent of respondents say his policies have harmed them, up from 41% last fall. And perhaps the poll data that makes Republicans most alert is this: Democratic voters this year have higher turnout enthusiasm. In the hypothetical question “If an election were held today, which party would you vote for,” Democrats lead by 11 percentage points.

Meanwhile, even some Republicans are uneasy about some of Trump’s recent, eyebrow-raising actions. These include his earlier $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax filings, followed by a settlement with the IRS.

Under the agreement, a compensation fund worth $1.8 billion—paid for by taxpayers—will be established to compensate those who claim they have been persecuted by a “politicized judicial system” like Trump. Beneficiaries likely include some people who have been charged for violent conduct during the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. At the time, Trump’s supporters tried to overturn the result of Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election.

On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (a Republican from South Dakota) told reporters when asked about the fund, “I don’t support it very much.”

The Democrats’ position was even more direct.

Washington State Democratic Senator Patty Murray, speaking at a hearing attended by Acting Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, said: “This corruption has never been so blatant, and it has never been so widespread. But what’s happening now is: you write the checks, and Trump and his allies cash them. And American taxpayers, who are already under pressure from high prices, will be the ones to pay.”

Under the settlement agreement, Trump and his son(s) are barred from personally collecting money from the so-called “deweaponization” fund. But the IRS will also be “permanently prohibited and barred” from pursuing back taxes that accrued prior to the settlement and that are owed by Trump, members of his family, or his businesses.

Although Trump has been very tough on unilateral executive actions, his political weakness has also undermined his influence in pushing things through via the legislative branch. Many of his agendas are currently stuck in Congress.

Neither John Thune nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (a Republican from Louisiana) has accepted Trump’s calls to pause the gas tax. The Senate has also resisted his push to end the lengthy-debate mechanism. Trump hopes to advance his top priority, the “Save America Act,” which includes a provision requiring people to prove their citizenship when they register to vote. Trump says this bill is necessary to maintain election security, but opponents argue it would suppress voter turnout.

Another recent issue that has angered Trump is that the Senate rules adviser refused to allow hundreds of millions of dollars for security expenses for his highly unpopular White House ballroom project to be inserted into a pending immigration enforcement funding bill.

For Trump, beyond the “golden halo” of defeating incumbent Republicans, there may also be shadows. These incumbents will remain in office until January next year, and they probably won’t be as afraid of him anymore.

On Tuesday, Cassidy—just after losing his primary—made an open show of resistance. He cast his first vote in support of a resolution to stop Trump from continuing to order attacks on Iran.

In a statement, Cassidy said: “In Louisiana, I heard many concerns, including from supporters of President Trump, who are worried about this war.”

In February this year, Massie told The Washington Post: “I have some colleagues who are just waiting for their primaries to be over, and then they’ll start developing more independent voices.”

Based on the current situation, for their own political survival, they may have no choice but to do so.

[Original link]

Click to learn more about Rhythm BlockBeats hiring positions

Welcome to the official Rhythm BlockBeats community:

Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram discussion group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia