Recently, more and more people in the community have been discussing an interesting phenomenon—investors have rediscovered an economic forecasting tool from over 150 years ago, the so-called Ciclo Benner proposed by Samuel Benner in 1875. This topic has attracted quite a bit of attention in the cryptocurrency community, so I want to share my thoughts on this matter.

Samuel Benner was a farmer who suffered significant losses during the economic crisis of 1873. Afterwards, he began studying economic cycle patterns and eventually published the book "Business Prophecy: Future Ups and Downs," which introduces his Ciclo Benner theory. What’s interesting about this theory is that it doesn’t rely on complex quantitative financial models but is based on Benner’s own observations of agricultural commodity price cycles. He believed that solar cycles influence crop yields, which in turn affect agricultural commodity prices.

According to Benner’s chart, there are three key lines: Line A marks panic years, Line B indicates prosperity years (suitable for selling stocks and assets), and Line C represents recession years (suitable for accumulation and buying). Although modern agriculture has changed dramatically, historical data shows that Ciclo Benner aligns quite well with many major financial events—such as the Great Depression of 1929, the dot-com bubble burst, and even the COVID-19 shock.

Last year (2025), many retail investors became quite optimistic based on Ciclo Benner’s predictions. They believed that around 2025, the market would peak, followed by a correction. Some crypto investors even used this theory to support their bullish outlook on AI tokens and emerging technologies. The atmosphere was indeed very lively, with everyone debating whether this ancient cycle theory really holds some magic.

But reality has given us some wake-up calls. Remember the market turbulence earlier this year? Changes in tariff policies, rising global economic uncertainties, major financial institutions increasing recession probabilities—JPMorgan even raised the global recession risk to 60% in 2025, and Goldman Sachs forecasted a 45% chance of recession in the next 12 months. These starkly contrast with the optimistic market peak expectations of Ciclo Benner.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has been quite frank about this theory. He said on social media that these old charts are more of a distraction than a help for him. He believes what truly matters is one’s own trading execution, not being misled by these theories. I think this perspective is worth pondering.

Interestingly, even when market performance diverges from Ciclo Benner’s predictions, some investors still insist on believing in this theory. Their logic is: markets are not just numbers but also driven by emotions, memories, and momentum. When enough people believe in a theory, it can start to have a real impact. From this angle, the enduring vitality of Ciclo Benner may stem precisely from this self-fulfilling prophecy effect.

My personal view is that using Ciclo Benner as a reference is fine, but it shouldn’t be the sole basis for decision-making. While historical data is impressive, economic environments are constantly evolving. Today, we have more real-time data, more complex market structures, and faster information dissemination. So rather than blindly following a theory from over 150 years ago, it’s better to incorporate multiple analytical perspectives to understand the market. Only then can we better protect ourselves in this uncertain environment.