Recently, a former executive of a derivative trading platform shared some interesting viewpoints worth deep reflection. He believes that establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States might not be that simple, as there are many hidden risks behind it.

The core logic is actually quite straightforward: governments buy and sell assets usually for political benefits rather than economic ones. You can buy whatever you can sell, which means Bitcoin ultimately cannot escape the whirlpool of political games. From a purely economic perspective, does Bitcoin really hold such strategic significance for the U.S. government? Not necessarily. Some might even claim the mission is accomplished and then sell it off, entirely depending on political needs.

What’s even more worth cautioning is the regulatory aspect. Recently, the close ties between the cryptocurrency community and the new government could be exploited by some large institutions to strengthen their market monopoly. Those with privileged access are more likely to push potential competitors out of the market. This is not conspiracy theory but a natural tendency of power structures.

Regarding short-term market trends, this former executive predicts Bitcoin might retrace to the $70,000–$75,000 range. The reason is that cryptocurrencies are not a top priority on the decision-makers’ agenda. Although industry insiders have put a lot of effort into supporting certain leaders, this political dividend seems overestimated. Compared to the pace of tariffs or other economic policies, progress on crypto issues is indeed much slower.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s current price has already risen to around $77,700, reflecting the market’s complex expectations about policy prospects. If no new policies are introduced in the short term, downward pressure might emerge. However, all these are just market observations; the actual direction still depends on subsequent policy developments and market sentiment.