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Just came across something interesting about historical market cycles that got me thinking about the periods when to make money.
So there's this old theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 where he was mapping out economic patterns - basically trying to figure out when markets boom, when they crash, and when they're just grinding sideways. The guy noticed a recurring cycle roughly every 18 to 20 years, which is kind of wild when you think about how it still seems to play out today.
Here's the breakdown: First, there are these panic years - financial crises hit, markets collapse, people lose their minds. Benner pinpointed years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and if the pattern holds, 2035 is on the radar. During these periods, you really don't want to be panic selling. Just sit tight and wait it out.
Then you've got the boom years - the golden periods when to make money if you know what you're doing. Markets recover hard, prices spike, and honestly, these are your windows to take profits. We've seen this play out in 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and according to the cycle, 2026 could be interesting. The theory suggests 2034 and 2043 might follow similar patterns.
The real opportunity though? The recession years. That's when prices are depressed, everything's on sale. Think 1924, 1931, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1985, 2005, 2012. We literally just saw 2023 fit this pattern perfectly. If you're strategic, these are when you load up on assets - stocks, land, commodities - whatever you think will moon during the next boom cycle.
Obviously, this isn't gospel. Markets get hit by politics, wars, tech disruptions, all kinds of stuff Benner couldn't predict. But as a macro framework for understanding long-term cycles and when periods when to make money actually show up? It's honestly worth keeping in your mental model. The pattern has held up surprisingly well across centuries, which makes you wonder if there's something to human nature and market psychology that just keeps repeating.