I noticed an interesting story that is currently being discussed in the crypto community. HBO is preparing a documentary that allegedly will expose the true Satoshi Nakamoto. Maybe it's just a marketing move, but the community has already started speculating on Polymarket. And honestly, this has raised a whole set of questions about who really created Bitcoin.

One name that constantly comes up in these discussions is Nick Szabo. If you follow crypto history, you know that this guy was in the blockchain space long before Bitcoin itself appeared. Cryptographer, lawyer, computer scientist — basically, someone who definitely knows what he's talking about.

What’s interesting: Nick Szabo introduced the concept of smart contracts back in 1994. Yes, exactly what the entire blockchain industry is built on today. Then, in 1998, he proposed "bit gold" — a cryptocurrency that was fully digital, didn’t require intermediaries, and used proof-of-work to solve the double-spending problem. Sounds familiar? Of course, because Bitcoin appeared exactly 10 years later, in October 2008.

Szabo’s bit gold operated on a chain of cryptographic solutions but relied on a quorum of addresses instead of computational power for consensus. There was a vulnerability to Sybil attacks, but the concept was there. Nick Szabo himself once explained: our money depends on trust in third parties, and that’s not very good. History has shown that this is true — the 20th century was full of inflationary and hyperinflationary crises.

So why is Nick Szabo considered the main candidate? Several reasons. First, bit gold is a clear predecessor of Bitcoin. The concept is rough, but if you have ten years to refine an idea, you can create something like Bitcoin. Second, Szabo clearly has the technical skills and deep understanding of cryptography and economics.

There are other details. Dominic Frisby, in his book about Bitcoin, noted that Szabo’s writing style and Satoshi Nakamoto’s are surprisingly similar. Both referenced economist Karl Menger. Both were very concerned about privacy. And here’s the funny part — Szabo constantly denies being Satoshi, while other contenders actively claim that honor. And if history teaches us anything, it’s that the real Satoshi will never say it’s him.

On prediction markets, Nick Szabo’s odds are estimated in double digits, while other contenders have single digits. Len Sassaman was once the main candidate, but Szabo is clearly ahead. The mystery remains a mystery, but HBO’s documentary will definitely add fuel to the fire. It will be interesting to see what comes of this.