Just stumbled upon this fascinating theory from Samuel Benner back in 1875 about predicting economic cycles, and honestly, it's worth thinking about when you're trying to figure out the best periods when to make money in markets.

The guy basically broke down market movements into three distinct phases that keep repeating. First, there are these panic years where everything tends to hit the fan – financial crises, market crashes, the whole deal. We've seen them in 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and if the pattern holds, potentially in 2035 and 2053. These show up roughly every 18-20 years. During these periods, you really want to sit tight and avoid panic selling, no matter how scary things look.

Then there's the boom phase – and this is where the money moves happen. These are the years when prices are climbing hard and markets are recovering strong. Think 1928, 1943, 1960, 1973, 1989, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020, and if this pattern is accurate, we might see another push in 2026 and 2034. This is traditionally when you want to be thinking about taking profits and selling your positions at those elevated prices.

The third piece is the recession years – and here's the thing, this is actually when smart money gets built. Prices are depressed, the economy's sluggish, but it's the perfect time to accumulate. Years like 1924, 1931, 1942, 1958, 1978, 1985, 2005, 2012, and 2023 are examples. You buy here, hold through the boom, then sell when things peak.

So the basic playbook: load up during the hard times when nobody wants to buy (that's your periods when to make money long-term), wait for the boom to kick in, then distribute your holdings at the top. Skip panic years entirely – don't be a seller when everyone's freaking out.

Obviously, this isn't gospel. Markets today are way more complex than they were 150 years ago – geopolitics, tech disruption, policy shifts, all of that plays a role. But as a long-term framework for understanding market rhythms? It's actually pretty compelling. Worth keeping in your mental model, especially when you're trying to time major moves.