I just came across an interesting geopolitical news story, and the progress of the Iran-U.S. negotiations this time could have a significant impact on the crypto market.

According to CNN, Pakistan’s mediators expect Iran to submit a revised peace proposal at the latest by this Friday. This time window is critical—between Tuesday and Friday, in just a few days, the direction of the negotiations could be decided. The main issue behind it is that it is difficult to get in touch with Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, and his approval appears to be a necessary condition for any official Iranian position. This reflects the complexity of Iran’s internal power structure, where coordination among different factions is itself a major challenge.

Interestingly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif publicly stated that Iran’s foreign minister assured him that there would be a response—adding public diplomatic pressure on Iran. At the same time, the White House has already made it clear that patience is running out, treating this Friday deadline as a hard cutoff rather than a flexible target. Trump previously rejected an earlier version from Iran and demanded that they revise the proposal. The situation now is this: a shortened ceasefire deadline, difficulty reaching Khamenei, and a growingly impatient U.S. government—combined together, these factors make the next 48 to 72 hours the most critical diplomatic window in the entire conflict.

For the crypto market, the outcome of this Iran negotiation is essentially a binary catalyst. If the revised proposal is approved by the U.S., the geopolitical risk premium could be released from oil prices—Brent is still trading above $114 per barrel—which would be a positive for Bitcoin and risk assets. But if Iran fails to submit on time or is rejected again, oil prices at high levels could continue to hold, and the macro environment’s pressure on risk positions would persist. In plain terms, this is a short-term catalyst worth keeping an eye on, especially for traders who focus on geopolitical risk premiums.