Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: what exactly are the rules that govern the bull and bear markets in the crypto world? Over the years, it seems there are indeed patterns to follow.

Let’s first look at history. Bitcoin has experienced bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, roughly every four years. The 2017 bull run left the deepest impression on me—Bitcoin soared to over $20k, and the whole network was shouting “To the moon,” at that time FOMO was off the charts, even grandmas on the street were talking about crypto. But eventually, the bull market ended, and the bear market from 2018 to 2019 caught many off guard, dropping from tens of thousands of dollars to just a few thousand, filling the market with despair.

Interestingly, this bull-bear cycle seems to have a rhythm. Generally, bull markets last about a year, while bear markets tend to drag on longer, maybe two years or more. But this cycle isn’t absolute; factors like policy environment, macroeconomics, and market sentiment all influence it. For example, the halving event is a great hype point for whales and institutions. They create volatility before and after halving—dump first, then pump—to attract retail investors.

Looking back at the recent cycle, 2023 was still deep in a bear market, and everyone was scared off by the previous crashes. By early 2024, institutional funds quietly started entering, signaling the prelude to a bull market. Mid-cycle, Bitcoin halving typically causes a dip followed by a rise, and then in 2025, the Fed begins easing monetary policy, improving the economic environment. Bitcoin eventually broke through $150k, even touching $200k at its peak. This bull run reignited many people’s confidence.

But there’s a detail worth noting: every time the bull market peaks, retail investors’ FOMO is at its worst. Whales and institutions create all kinds of positive news at the top to attract the last wave of retail investors, then quietly start to unload. When a large number of retail investors rush in and market sentiment is extremely crazy, that’s usually the end of the bull run. This pattern repeats every time.

Honestly, staying rational during a bull market is really difficult. Everyone is making money, and if you don’t follow the trend, you might feel like a fool. But at this point, you need to be the most cautious, because the highest risks are often hidden in the hottest moments. When a bear market arrives, patience is key—wait for the next cycle. Only projects with real strength can survive.

From 2013 to now, each four-year cycle has proven this pattern. When will the next bull market come? Based on historical data, the crypto market typically takes about 33 months to start a new bull run, so the cycle is relatively stable. But the exact timing depends on variables like policy, economic environment, and market sentiment. Instead of trying to predict precisely, it’s better to understand the logic behind bull markets and find your rhythm amid the volatility.