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Who will go public first, Anthropic or OpenAI? I think neither of them will successfully hit the capital markets this fall.
OpenAI's governance structure and shareholder conflicts haven't been fully resolved yet, and the biggest obstacle on the IPO road hasn't been addressed, making it difficult to proceed in the short term. Although Anthropic has a simple structure, its commercialization progress and revenue scale are not yet sufficient to support a market-shaking IPO; rushing to go public could instead expose its weaknesses. Plus, with the overall volatility in tech stocks currently, the market's valuation of AI companies is more cautious, giving both companies plenty of reason to wait and see for a more suitable window.
Therefore, I lean more towards believing that this IPO race will most likely be postponed for both.