I recently came across a fairly complex geopolitical issue. The apparent reason for the US-Iran war is nuclear weapons, but if you dig deeper, you’ll find that decades of historical grudges and energy interests are behind it.

First, let’s talk about what’s happening right now. Both the US and Iran have completely reached a standstill in nuclear negotiations. Washington demands that Iran dismantle key nuclear facilities such as Fordo and Natanz, but Iran simply refuses—saying it’s a matter of sovereignty. Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has already exceeded 400 kilograms, with a concentration of 60%. How dangerous is this figure? It is already very close to weapons-grade; in theory, it’s enough to produce multiple nuclear bombs. For the United States, the window to prevent Iran from weaponizing its program is closing rapidly.

But this isn’t something that suddenly appeared out of nowhere. To understand the reasons behind the US-Iran war, you need to look back. In 1953, the CIA planned a coup that overthrew Iran’s prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, with a very straightforward objective—control oil, and then back the Shah’s regime. This decision planted the seeds of later hatred. In 1979, Iran saw an Islamic Revolution that overthrew the Shah, who was pro-American; the entire situation was completely reversed. Iran went from being an ally of the United States to becoming a sworn enemy. Over the following decades, Tehran carried out regional expansion in the Middle East through proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

The JCPOA agreement signed in 2015 once froze Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump directly withdrew from it in 2018. This move restarted the enrichment race, and the situation returned to confrontation. After the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, those years of covert struggle gradually came to the surface, turning into open conflict.

The real core here is energy. Iran controls 208 billion barrels of oil and 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. More importantly, it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Every day, 20 million barrels of oil have to pass through this strait, accounting for 20% of global supply. If Iran has nuclear weapons, its ability to control the flow of energy would rise exponentially. What would that mean? Global inflation, rising transportation costs, market volatility—the impact would not be limited to the Middle East at all.

Iran’s counterattack has been direct: it attacked US military bases stationed in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries immediately condemned Tehran and pledged to provide “all capabilities” to defend sovereignty. This action could pull the entire Arab world into a regional war, reshuffling the alliance landscape in the Gulf and the distribution of power.

In the end, the reasons for the US-Iran war are by no means as simple as nuclear issues. This is a contest over control of energy—linked to global oil supply, the geopolitical landscape, and the historical grudges accumulated over more than half a century. As a result, markets will be unstable, and investors need to closely monitor the direction of the energy sector.