Just looking back at that Bitcoin price forecast from early 2026 and honestly, things didn't quite play out as expected. We were sitting around 88k back then, and everyone was talking about breaking above 100k by February. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was supposed to be the key indicator, but markets had other plans. Those spot ETF outflows everyone worried about? They actually continued longer than anticipated. Now we're in late May and BTC has cooled significantly, hovering around 77k. The technical wedge pattern they were tracking got invalidated pretty quickly. Interesting how macro conditions shifted - Fed policy didn't stay as dovish as people thought. That 14% February rally target was ambitious in hindsight. The lesson here is that even when on-chain metrics and sentiment look favorable, bitcoin price movements can still surprise you. Consolidation phases tend to last longer than traders expect.